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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 11, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 34-22-2 (+6.64 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: DET +180
ARI: Zac Gallen | DET: Joey Wentz
I'll start today in the early game, as the Diamondbacks and Tigers wrap up their series before the Tigers get ready for the Braves to come to town, while the Diamondbacks head home to welcome the Phillies into the desert.
The visiting D-Backs will be sending Zac Gallen (7-2, 2.75 ERA) to the mound. Gallen, who is tied as the favorite for NL Cy Young (+240) with Spencer Strider on FanDuel, has obviously been fantastic this season. He projects to a solid 3.53 SIERA against a Tigers lineup that has been absolutely brutal against right-handed pitching this season, ranking dead last in both wOBA (.281) and wRC+ (78). They project to a .257 wOBA today.
On the other hand, the Tigers will send Joey Wentz (1-6, 7.49 ERA) to the mound. We went after Wentz on Monday night with Aaron Nola and the Phillies, and we'll do the same today. Wentz projects to a 4.95 SIERA against a Diamondbacks lineup that is good, but not great, against left-handed pitching. They rank 16th in wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (106), but project to a massive .401 wOBA today, the highest number on the slate.
It's Sunday, and the Diamondbacks do have to travel cross-country for a tough series against a Tigers team that seems to be turning a corner. However, all the numbers point towards a big Diamondbacks win, so I'll put my money behind it. We'll stick to the F5 run line, which we can get at -154 on FanDuel.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-154), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.54 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Braves
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: ATL -275
WSH: Trevor Williams | ATL: Bryce Elder
I'll head down to Atlanta for my second play of the night. The Nationals will have tomorrow off, while the Braves will head north to visit the aforementioned Tigers.
The visiting Nationals will send Trevor Williams (2-4, 4.15 ERA) to the mound. While those numbers on the surface aren't too bad, Williams is due for some massive regression here: bringing in a 5.51 xERA and 5.07 xFIP. He projects to a 5.02 SIERA in this one against a Braves lineup that ranks sixth in wOBA (.332) and ninth in wRC+ (105) against righties. The Braves project to a .356 wOBA against Williams today.
On the other hand, Bryce Elder will take the ball for the Braves. Elder (4-0, 2.26 ERA) has been a prime candidate for regression, given his 4.16 xERA and 3.64 xFIP. He projects to a 4.00 SIERA today against a Nationals lineup that ranks 25th in wOBA (.300) and 26th in wRC+ (85). The Nationals are pesky though, and have kept things close throughout this series.
However, I'm expecting things to be a bit different today. I'll be grabbing the Braves' run line in this one, which we can get for -138 on FanDuel.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-138), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.38 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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