RADIO
Happy Sunday and happy Mother's Day, RotoBallers! I was a bit busy with work yesterday so I was unable to publish an article, but I'm back for this wide Sunday slate of games. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Sunday, May 8, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 17-17-1, -5.33 units
- Sides: 13-10, -0.96 units
- Totals: 4-7-1, -1.37 units
- Notes: We went 0-1 on Saturday, with Sandy Alcantara failing to shut the Padres out in the first inning despite getting two outs in two batters to start the game. Another brutal loss, but we'll bounce back today as I'll be "running back" the Mets and Phillies NRFI as well as a couple of other plays. Let's get right to it.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS -145
CWS: Dallas Keuchel | BOS: Michael Wacha
I'll head to Boston for the earliest play on the slate today, with an 11:35 am EST start. The visiting White Sox have taken the first two of this series, scoring two runs in the top of the 10th to win yesterday's game 3-1. They'll send Dallas Keuchel to the hill today, who comes into this one 1-3 with an 8.40 ERA and a 5.27 xFIP. While the Red Sox aren't crushing left-handed pitching, coming into this one ranked 22nd in OPS (.617) and 24th in wRC+ (80), Keuchel has pitched so poorly it's hard to see Boston's bats not come alive in this one.
On the other side of the matchup, the Red Sox will send Michael Wacha to the hill. Boston will look for Wacha to be their "stopper" here as they've dropped four straight games. They're in luck, as they're 4-1 behind Wacha, who comes into this one 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA. He's expected to regress, given his 4.16 xFIP. However, I just can't see it today against the White Sox, who come into this one ranked 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching (.597) and 26th in wRC+ (26th).
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Red Sox at -145 as I'm typing this, good for 59.18% implied odds. My model currently has the Red Sox at a 62.22% chance of winning this game, giving us solid value. On top of this, Boston brings into this one a massive pitching advantage. In their last 54 games after losing their first two games in a series, the Red Sox are 40-14. I think that trend continues, and I would jump on this line now before it begins to rise.
Pick: Red Sox Money Line (-145) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: PHI +120
NYM: Max Scherzer | PHI: Kyle Gibson
We'll head to Philly for the first pick of the day. After a brutal ninth-inning collapse from the Phillies, they'll look to bounce back tonight. That won't be easy though, as Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Mets. Scherzer comes into this one with a 2.61 ERA and 2.61 xFIP and is looking like the same dominant Max Scherzer. Scherzer is perfect in the first inning this year, going five starts without allowing a first-inning run. This includes two starts against the Phillies, including striking out the side in order in their last matchup.
On the other side, the Phillies will be sending Gibson to the mound. Gibson has been stellar for the Phillies, coming into this one with a 2.93 ERA and a 3.36 xFIP. Gibson has been solid in the first inning as well, keeping opponents off the board in all but one of his five starts to start the year. He's tossed a scoreless first in both starts at home, as well as in his last start on the road against these very same Mets.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -130 here, good for 56.52% implied odds. Between the two starters' success with NRFIs thus far into the season, as well as both offenses limiting their run production in the opening frame, my model gives the NRFI a 60.52% chance of hitting. I like the value we're getting here is great, especially considering each pitcher's past against their respective opponents.
Pick: NRFI (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: BAL -108
KC: Daniel Lynch | BAL: Jordan Lyles
We'll head to Baltimore for our final pick and second NRFI of the day for Game 1 of this doubleheader. Daniel Lynch will take the hill for Kansas City, coming into this one 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP. He's had a bit of a struggle in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in the opening frame in just two of his four starts, including one of two starts on the road. To be fair to Lynch, these first-inning runs were scored by the Cardinals and Yankees respectively, two top-five offenses in both OPS and wRC+ against southpaws. The Orioles rank 29th in OPS (.572) and 28th in wRC+ (72). They've also been held scoreless in 22 of 24 first innings this season, including all 13 of their games at home.
On the other side, it's a bit of a toss-up who will start for the Orioles. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Jordan Lyles as the starter for Baltimore, while the MLB app lists Bruce Zimmermann as the starter. To be truthful, it really doesn't matter which one of them starts this game, I like this play anyways. Neither Lyles nor Zimmermann have allowed a run in the first all season, and it's not like the Royals generate a specific advantage against a specific handedness. They rank 25th in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (.602, 79). I suppose they're slightly better against southpaws, ranking 24th in OPS (.606) and wRC+ (81), but I think Zimmermann is the better pitcher than Lyles so we'll call it a wash. The Royals have scored a first-inning run in just two of their eight road games on the season, and 18 of 23 games overall.
So I've noticed on FanDuel Sportsbook offers three different markets here. They offer the first-inning result (where you could choose "tie"), first-inning total runs, as well as over/under 0.5 first-inning runs. What I find interesting is while FanDuel has "tie" at -135 and zero first-inning runs at -120, I'll be taking the under 0.5 first-inning runs. This is listed at -105, good for 51.22% implied odds. Between the pitcher's data and the poor first-inning scoring from both sides, my model has given the NRFI a 69.23% chance of hitting. We're getting excellent value here, and I'll continue to ride the O's "NRFI" train until it begins to fail me.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-105) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! See you Wednesday!
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