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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 7, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 18-12 (+2.79 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -215
COL: Ryan Feltner | NYM: Joey Luchhesi
We split our plays on Friday but we'll look for a Sunday sweep starting off with a NRFI up in Queens.
The visiting Rockies will send Ryan Feltner to the mound. Feltner (2-2, 4.45 ERA) has had an up-and-down season but has been excellent in the first inning. He's a perfect 6/6 in holding opponents scoreless this season. He'll have a tough test this afternoon against a Mets team that's scored in just two of 13 first innings at home and in just four of 33 overall.
The Mets will be sending Joey Lucchesi to the mound. Lucchesi has been very good in the first inning this season as well, allowing a first-inning tally in one of three starts so far, and coming in 1/1 at Citi Field. The Rockies have actually been relatively good at scoring in the first on the road, scoring in seven of 17 opening frames, compared to just two of 16 at Coors. Nevertheless, they've scored in just two of their last ten, so we'll back Lucchesi here.
We're getting very good odds on the first-inning under, at -104 on FanDuel. My model gives the under a 62.93% chance of hitting, proving this to be a very solid value play here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.04 unit to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CIN -126
CWS: Michael Kopech | CIN: Graham Ashcraft
I'll wrap up my Sunday in Cincinnati, as the White Sox and Reds do battle, and we'll take a look at a first five money line here.
The White Sox will send Michael Kopech to the mound. Kopech (0-3, 5.97 ERA) has had a rough season thus far, as well as the White Sox behind him. He projects to a 5.11 SIERA and 38.5% hard contact rate against a Reds lineup that has been uninspiring this season, ranking 21st in wOBA (.303) and 24th (82) against right-handed pitchers. However, Cincy projects to a .334 wOBA today.
The Reds will be sending Graham Ashcraft to the mound. Ashcraft (2-0, 2.00 ERA) has been very good this season, certainly being a bright spot in the Reds' otherwise slow start to the season. He projects to a 3.85 SIERA against the White Sox today, and the Sox come into this one ranked 26th in wOBA (.291) and 24th in wRC+ (82). They actually project under their season average in wOBA in this one, at .288.
We're getting what I think are really good odds on the first five money line here, at -128 on FanDuel. While I decided to just run the standard 1.28 units to win one unit, I did consider doubling it to 2.56 units to win two units for a bit. However, with it still being so early in the season, and a Sunday, I don't want to push my luck.
Pick: Reds F5 Moneyline (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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