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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We regressed a bit yesterday, going 1-1 on our plays. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, May 6, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 17-16-1, -4.33 units
- Sides: 13-10, -0.96 units
- Totals: 4-6-1, -3.37 units
- Notes: While the Blue Jays were able to put runs up on the board, Jose Berrios simply wasn't good enough. Six earned runs in 4.2 innings, I really expected more from him. On the other hand, the Rockies took care of business. We're back at it today with a pair of NRFIs for today's slate. Let's get right to it.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: SD -130
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | SD: Yu Darvish
I'll head to San Diego for the second play of the night as the Marlins and Padres duke it out for the second game of their weekend set. The Marlins will send ace Sandy Alcantara to the mound. He had a rough go of it last time out against the Mariners, allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings. Despite this, he brings a 2.90 ERA into this one, and while we can expect regression given his 4.10 xFIP, it doesn't seem like it'll come in the first inning. Alcantara has thrown a scoreless first in four of his first five starts this year, including both of his starts on the road.
On the other side of the matchup, the Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound. Darvish has had an up and down start to the year, coming into this one with a 4.44 ERA. We can expect some position regression with Darvish though, as his xFIP sits at 3.85. He's thrown a scoreless inning in just three of his five starts, but he's cashed the NRFI in each of his two home starts. It's a bit of a risk backing Darvish in this spot, but the Marlins have scored in just two of their 12 road games this season, and just five of 25 overall.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -142, good for 58.67% implied odds. As I mentioned above, the Marlins have struggled to score in the first inning this season. The Padres have been better, but have still cashed in and scored in just four of 11 home games, and 18 of 26 games overall. Sandy is good enough to keep the Padres bats at bay, and my model gives the NRFI a 62.11% chance of hitting. We're getting good value here, so I have no problem taking advantage of the NRFI at a relatively cheap price for this matchup.
Pick: NRFI (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
This game has been postponed due to weather.
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: PHI +120
NYM: Max Scherzer | PHI: Kyle Gibson
We'll head to Philly for the first pick of the day. After a brutal ninth-inning collapse from the Phillies, they'll look to bounce back tonight. That won't be easy though, as Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Mets. Scherzer comes into this one with a 2.61 ERA and 2.61 xFIP and is looking like the same dominant Max Scherzer. Scherzer is perfect in the first inning this year, going five starts without allowing a first-inning run. This includes two starts against the Phillies, including striking out the side in order in their last matchup.
On the other side, the Phillies will be sending Gibson to the mound. Gibson has been stellar for the Phillies, coming into this one with a 2.93 ERA and a 3.36 xFIP. Gibson has been solid in the first inning as well, keeping opponents off the board in all but one of his five starts to start the year. He's tossed a scoreless first in both starts at home, as well as in his last start on the road against these very same Mets.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -130 here, good for 56.52% implied odds. Between the two starters' success with NRFIs thus far into the season, as well as both offenses limiting their run production in the opening frame, my model gives the NRFI a 60.52% chance of hitting. I like the value we're getting here is great, especially considering each pitcher's past against their respective opponents.
Pick: NRFI (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! See you tomorrow!
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