RADIO
Happy Thursday and happy Cinco de Mayo, RotoBallers! We bounced back on Sunday, nailing both of our NRFIs, racking up 1.41 units in the process. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, May 5, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 16-15-1, -4.03 units
- Sides: 12-9, -0.66 units
- Totals: 4-6-1, -3.37 units
- Notes:
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: COL -136
WSH: Aaron Sanchez | COL: Antonio Senzatela
We'll head to Coors Field in Colorado for our first matchup of the day, as the Nationals and Rockies close out their series. These two teams have split the first two games of the series and will play a matinee rubber match this afternoon. The Nationals will send Aaron Sanchez to the mound. If you look past his 6.75 ERA, Sanchez has actually pitched decent enough, coming into this one with a 3.44 xFIP. Despite this, Sanchez grades out to a 36.4 rating on my model, the second-worst of today's games.
On the other side, the Rockies will be sending Antonio Senzatela to the mound. Senzatela comes into this one with a 3.66 ERA, but we could expect regression as his xFIP coming into today is 4.33. Through his first four starts of the season, the Rockies are 3-1 behind him. One thing that intrigues me here is like his pitching "predecessor" last night, Austin Gomber, Senzatela actually pitches better at Coors than on the road. He grades out to a 44.29 rating on my model, and while that's middle of the pack relative to the slate, it does give the Rockies a +7.89 rating starting pitching advantage here.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rockies listed at -136 currently, good for 57.63% implied odds. My model gives the Rockies a 59.92% chance of winning, so we're getting decent value here. Beyond the model chance of winning and the pitching matchup, Colorado has massive advantages in hitter ratings (+2.84) as well as pitch-type ratings (+5.46). Their pitch-type rating advantage against the Nationals is the highest on the slate. The Rockies are also 5-0 in Senzatela's last five starts in Coors against a team with a losing record, so I have no problem backing the home favorites here.
Pick: Colorado Rockies Money Line (-136) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CLE +132
TOR: Jose Berrios | CLE: Aaron Civale
I'll head to Cleveland for the second play of the day. Coming off of a doubleheader with San Diego yesterday, the Guardians will host to Toronto Blue Jays for a weekend set. The Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios to the mound, who seems to have turned it around after a poor first outing early last month. He's coming into this one with a 4.13 ERA and a 4.67 xFIP. He grades out to a 49.14 rating on my model, around the middle of the pack.
The Guardians will send Aaron Civale to the mound for this opening game, and Civale comes into this one with a 10.67 ERA and a 5.45 xFIP. Civale grades out as the worst pitcher in any of the ten games today, with a model rating of just 21.08. This gives the Blue Jays the highest pitcher advantage on the slate at +28.05. Civale's allowed six runs in each of his last two starts and should have his hands full today against a Blue Jays lineup that should be welcoming back Teoscar Hernandez this afternoon.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Blue Jays at -156, good for 60.94% implied odds. It's slightly juiced, but we're still getting solid value here as my model gives the Blue Jays a 63.44% chance of winning this one. On top of that and the pitcher rating advantage Toronto has, they own the batter rating advantage (+4.63) and the pitch-type rating (+0.43). Their +4.63 batter rating advantage over Cleveland is the best on the slate. Toronto has won its last five as a road favorite, and five of its last seven in Cleveland. I'll be backing the Jays today.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! See you tomorrow!
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