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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, May 29, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 30-20 (+4.26 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +148
TEX: Nathan Eovaldi | DET: Matthew Boyd
After staying hot on Sunday, we plunge forward on this Memorial Day and start off where we did yesterday: out in Detroit, this time for a first-five run line.
The Rangers will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound in this one. Nasty Nate (6-2, 2.60 ERA) is surely living up to his nickname through his first 10 starts of the year. He now gets to take on a Tigers lineup that ranks 26th in both wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (85) against right-handed pitching. His projected 3.49 SIERA clears his opponent fairly easily.
That opponent will be Matthew Boyd (3-3, 5.74 ERA). While signs of positive regression are there for Boyd (4.24 xERA, 5.12 xFIP), it'll be a tough ask for him to be able to make those strides in this one. I've mentioned how good the Rangers are against left-handed pitching, ranking third in both wOBA (.359) and wRC+ (130) against southpaws. They project to a .368 wOBA in this one, while Boyd projects to a 4.59 SIERA.
In theory, I would still see the value in taking the Rangers' first five moneyline straight up at -170. However, I'll "reduce the juice" here a bit by taking the run line or "first five result" in favor of Texas, which we can get at -120 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rangers F5 -0.5 (-120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -225
WSH: Trevor Williams | LAD: Bobby Miller
Out west we go for our second play of the day, another first five run line while we'll back the Dodgers as they open up a series with the Nationals on Memorial Day.
The Nationals will send Trevor Williams (2-2, 4.32 ERA) to the mound. The 31-year-old righty has had a respectable 2023 campaign so far but seems to be due for a minor downtick in production. He projects to a 4.60 SIERA against a Dodgers lineup that despite seemingly having a "down" season, still ranks second in wOBA (.340) and third in wRC+ (115) against right-handed pitching.
Conversely, the Dodgers will send Bobby Miller to the mound for just his second MLB start. Despite struggling in AAA to start the season, Miller (1-0, 1.80 ERA) was impressive in his MLB debut against the Braves. He struck out five across five innings, allowing one run on four hits and walking one. He projects to a 3.09 SIERA against a Nationals lineup that ranks 23rd in wOBA (.302) and 25th in wRC+ (86).
Considering we're backing a rookie in just his second start, this line is truthfully a bit higher than I'd like it. However, I just think the Dodgers are in a good spot here behind Miller, so I'll back them on the F5 run line at -150 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-150), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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