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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 29, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 27-29-1, -7.58 units
- Sides: 20-19, -6.59 units
- Totals: 6-10-1, -2.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET +134
CLE: Triston McKenzie| DET: Elvin Rodriguez
I'll head to Detroit for our first game of the day like yesterday, as the Guardians and Tigers close out their series. The Guardians will send Triston McKenzie (3-3, 2.70 ERA) to the mound. Now, McKenzie has been considerably lucky thus far into the season, allowing a 43.4% hard-contact rate, and comes into this game with a 4.25 xFIP. He should pitch well against Detroit though, whom he pitched eight innings of one-hit ball against in his last start against them, back in August of last season.
The Tigers will send Elvin Rodriguez (0-0, 9.39 ERA) to the mound today. Rodriguez is making just his second start of the season, after allowing four runs on four hits in five innings, while also striking out four. While his xFIP does show signs of positive regression, it still sits at 5.73, so we can't expect much here.
Fanduel Sportsbook is giving Guardians -158 odds on the money line, good for 61.24% implied odds. My model gives Cleveland a 64.06% chance of winning this one, with a final score of 5.11-3.88. The Guardians have dominated this matchup over the years, winning 40 of the last 56 matchups in Detroit and 62 of the last 82 matchups overall. Triston McKenzie has allowed two hits in his last 13 innings against the Tigers, so I'll back the road favorite here.
Pick: Guardians Money Line (-158) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Mets
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM -118
PHI: Zack Wheeler | NYM: Chris Bassitt
We'll head to New York for our second play of the day. The game total makes me raise an eyebrow, as these are two quality pitchers on the mound. I won't be looking at the full-game total though, but I'll dig into an NRFI here. Zack Wheeler has kept opponents off the board in the first inning in each of his eight starts this year, including his start against the Mets on April 12.
On the other side, Chris Bassitt will take the mound, and while he hasn't been perfect in first innings like Wheeler has, he's still been impressive. He's kept offenses off the board in the opening frame in four of five starts at home, and in seven of nine starts overall. This includes a May 8 matchup in Philadelphia. Oddly enough, both starts where Bassitt allowed a run in the first this season came against the Giants, so I'm not too worried about Bassitt this evening.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -112, good for 52.83% implied odds. My model is showing solid value here, giving the NRFI a 60.53% chance of hitting. I'll be somewhat going against a trend here, considering these two teams have scored a first-inning tally in five of 11 games against each other. Nevertheless, I expect both pitchers to be up for Sunday Night Baseball and keep things clean through the first frame.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Friday!
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