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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, May 28, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 25-29-1, -8.9 units
- Sides: 19-19, -7.13 units
- Totals: 5-10-1, -3.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET +130
CLE: Shane Bieber | DET: Alex Faedo
I'll head to Detroit for our first game of the day, and we're looking at an NRFI here. The Guardians will send Shane Bieber to the mound, who comes into this one holding opposing offenses scoreless in the first inning in each of his first five road starts this season, and seven out of eight starts overall. Alex Faedo has held opponents scoreless in each of his only two starts at home, and in three of four starts overall this season.
The Guardians haven't scored well in the first inning, putting up a crooked number in just six of 25 road games, and in 11 of 41 games overall. The Tigers have struggled, even more, scoring in just four of 22 home games and just five of 44 games overall. With all of this data, my model projects these two teams to stay under 0.5 runs at 72.73% implied odds, while FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us 55.36% odds at -124. We'll happily take the massive value we're getting here.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-124) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI +154
LAD: Tony Gonsolin | ARI: Merrill Kelly
We'll head to Arizona for the second game of the night. The visiting Dodgers will send Tony Gonsolin to the mound tonight, who comes into this one 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA. As it seems with Gonsolin since he's come up with the Dodgers, he is due for regression, due to his 3.80 xFIP. He continues to defy this, though, and the Dodgers have played well behind him, winning five of his eight starts, and two of his last three.
Merrill Kelly will take the ball for the Diamondbacks, who will come into this one 3-2 with a 3.49 ERA. After a scorching hot start, Kelly has already begun to regress, with a 2.17 WHIP and 10.50 ERA in his last three starts, with the Diamondbacks dropping all three. Not only this, but to be frank, the Dodgers own Kelly. He's started nine games against LA, and the Diamondbacks have lost eight of them, the only win coming back in August of 2019. He's 0-6 with a 5.89 ERA against the Dodgers.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this line a bit juiced up, but after a brutal day yesterday, I just want a win. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best line as I'm typing this at -184, or 64.79% implied odds. My model gives them a 71.01% chance of winning this game by a final score of 5.93-4.01, so we're getting solid model value here as well. It's juiced I know, but the Dodgers are dominating this series, while the Diamondbacks have lost nine of Kelly's last ten starts against the NL West.
Pick: Dodgers Money Line (-184) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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