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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, which opens up tonight. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, May 27, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 26-20 (+0.59 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -130
TEX: Jon Gray | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez
I'll be starting my weekend out in Baltimore (possibly literally) as I may head down for this game tonight. The Rangers are in town for a weekend series, and I'll start my weekend off with a first-five play.
The Rangers will send Jon Gray (4-1, 3.02 ERA) to the mound. Gray is a guy who always seems to be due for regression, and that is true once again given his 5.18 xERA and 4.80 xFIP according to Fangraphs. He projects to a 4.57 SIERA against an Orioles lineup that projects to a .349 wOBA and 33.92% hard contact against him this evening. Baltimore ranks in the top third in most important offensive categories against right-handed pitching this season.
The Orioles will send 23-year-old Grayson Rodriguez to the mound for his tenth MLB start. G-Rod (2-1, 6.21 ERA) has had a lackluster start to his big-league career, though he is due for some positive regression (5.32 xERA, 3.83 xFIP). He projects to a 4.13 SIERA in this one, but that will be against a Rangers lineup that projects to a .345 wOBA and massive 51.19% hard contact rate against the righty.
Both teams have a relatively good bullpen here, so we'll leave them out of it and look to grab the first five over. We can grab that at 4.5 on FanDuel for -110.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN +125
TOR: Kevin Gausman | MIN: Louie Varland
I'll head out to Target Field for my second play of the day, as the Blue Jays and Twins match up for a weekend series.
The visiting Jays will send Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.14 ERA) to the mound. While Gausman's xERA sits at the same 3.14 figure as his "true" ERA, his xFIP does show signs of positive regression at 2.71. He projects to a 2.92 SIERA against a Twins lineup that projects to just a .305 wOBA and 27.97% hard contact rate and will now be without shortstop Carlos Correa.
The aforementioned Twins will be sending a righty of their own, Louie Varland, to the mound. Varland (2-0, 4.18 ERA) has some weird "expected" numbers, with a 4.60 ERA and 3.64 xFIP coming into this one. Nevertheless, my model has him at a respectable 3.88 SIERA in this showdown with Toronto, who despite projecting to just a .319 wOBA – is projected to hit the ball hard at a 42.27% clip in this one.
The Twins have some weapons in the back end of their bullpen at their disposal if this one stays close late, and for that reason, I'll grab the Blue Jays' first five moneyline here. I do think the Jays win this one outright, but we'll play it safe. You can get the same odds on both, at -150 on FanDuel.
Pick: Blue Jays (-150), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.67 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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