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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 9-4-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for May 27, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -120
TEX: Andrew Heaney | BAL: Dean Kremer
We'll kick off today's picks in Baltimore. Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Texas opposite Dean Kremer and the Orioles. Game one of this series resulted in a decisive 12-2 victory for the Rangers on Friday night, and I anticipate we'll get more fireworks today. It's a pedestrian pitching matchup caught between two powerhouse lineups. One or both of these teams is scoring a lot of runs today.
Andrew Heaney has performed decently this season, carrying a 4.13 ERA and 4.78 FIP through nine starts. His advanced numbers tell us that he's due for some positive regression, but not to the extent that he's safe today. Baltimore brings one of the league's better offenses. They score 5.1 runs per game, alongside a .785 OPS against left-handed pitching. Their success against southpaws includes a .183 ISO and 119 wRC+. The Orioles match up well with Heaney. They also match up well against the Rangers' bullpen, which carries a 4.73 ERA, the fourth-worst in the majors.
Dean Kremer has struggled on the mound this season. He brings a 4.63 ERA, which may not appear too dissimilar from Heaney's mark, but the advanced numbers are brutal. Kremer carries a horrible 6.75 xERA, including a similarly terrible .392 xwOBA, .305 xBA, .559 xSLG, 47.9% hard-hit rate, and 11.4% barrel rate. Outside of limiting walks, nothing about Kremer's arsenal is encouraging, and this is a likely spot for his luck to run out.
The Rangers bring the league's most explosive offense, scoring an MLB-best 6.2 runs per game. They carry a .775 OPS against right-handed pitching, the fourth highest in baseball, including a .186 ISO and 114 wRC+. Texas has been rolling lately, winning six of their last seven contests, including three 11-plus run performances in that span. Today looks to be a very bad Saturday for Kremer.
Both offenses are live to go off today. Either through a blowout or a more evenly high-scoring game, I feel comfortable predicting Baltimore and Texas collectively reach double-digit runs today.
Pick: Over 9 Total Runs (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Angels
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAA -200
MIA: Edward Cabrera | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
Moving on to Saturday's late-night action, there's a promising opportunity in Anaheim. Edward Cabrera and the Marlins will square off against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. Los Angeles has won 14 of Ohtani's last 17 starts, losing the other three outings by a combined four runs. For that reason and more, this game feels like a mismatch worth highlighting.
Ohtani is enjoying yet another stellar season on the mound. He's been touched up a little bit recently, but he's coming off a strong outing, and Ohtani's underlying metrics tell us the early May woes had more to do with bad luck. He sports a tremendous 2.95 xERA, including a 3.41 xFIP, .271 xwOBA, .295 xSLG, .169 xBA, 84.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 32.5% hard-hit rate. We've come to expect dominance every time Ohtani takes the bump.
Ohtani's matchup with the Marlins further strengthens his chances for a shutdown performance. Miami brings one of the league's weaker offenses, scoring just 3.7 runs per game on the season. They carry an awful .686 OPS against right-handed pitching, including a .135 ISO, 89 wRC+, and .300 wOBA. Even once Ohtani's day is finished, the Angels' 3.57 bullpen ERA is the seventh-best in the majors. The Marlins will be hard-pressed to move the needle at all tonight.
Conversely, Edward Cabrera has experienced a tougher journey on the mound in 2023. He owns a weak 5.05 ERA, though his underlying numbers suggest some mild positive regression is due (4.29 xERA). Cabrera's biggest problem is an atrocious 15% walk rate that regularly lands him trouble. Problems stemming from the barrage of free passes are then compounded by Cabrera's affinity for giving up hard contact. He surrenders an 89.6 MPH average exit velocity, 43% hard-hit rate, and 8.8% barrel rate. Cabrera has potential, but success tends to be elusive when you walk more than six batters per nine innings pitched.
Unlike the Marlins, the Angels' offense is something to fear. They average nearly five runs per game behind juggernaut names like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, including several other explosive hitters like Hunter Renfroe, a red-hot Mickey Moniak, and more. They sport a middling .739 OPS against right-handed pitching alongside a .166 ISO and 103 wRC+. The Angels prefer southpaw pitching, but I like their chances against Cabrera and the Marlins' 4.25 bullpen ERA.
The Angels dropped game one of the series last night, but in general, they've been in a good way lately, winning six of their last eight contests. There's enough evidence here of an impending blowout, and that's how I'll approach this game.
Pick: Angels -1.5 Run Line (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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