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Yesterday was about as bad as a day I could have had from a betting standpoint. First, Luis Garcia left after eight pitches as I had him in every DFS lineup and not only bet his K prop but had a ladder as well. I had Weaver in the same boat; he was about as bad as you could be. The beauty of betting and DFS is that each day is new, and although yesterday stunk, we're ready to make some money today with a full 15-game slate on tap.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, May 2, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Rangers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TEX +120
ARZ: Zac Gallen | TEX: Jon Gray
The NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks (16-13) travel to Arlington to take on the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (17-11). Zac Gallen will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks against Jon Gray. Gallen has been sensational in the early going of 2023. He enters today's start with a 4-1 record, 2.15 ERA, 2.46 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 36.2% K. His counterpart Jon Gray enters today with a 1-1 record, a 3.91 ERA, 5.65 SIERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 16.0% K. Gallen has the lowest SIERA of any starter today, and Gray has the highest.
Texas has been excellent against right-hand pitching holding a 120 wRC+ compared to Arizona's 100 wRC+. Both teams have been in the top ten over the last 15 days in wRC+. I will side with Gallen, who has been one of the most dominant arms in the big leagues to start 2023, and I hope we see some negative regression for Jon Gray here today.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: WAS +125
CHC: Hayden Wesneski | WAS: Trevor Williams
The Chicago Cubs will battle the Washington Nationals again today after the Cubs took game one 5-1 last night. Hayden Wesneski and his 5.36 SIERA and 1.52 WHIP will square off against Trevor Williams and his 5.02 SIERA and 1.29 WHIP. Wesneski has a 2.01 HR/9 and, although he has tremendous stuff, has yet to figure it out in early 2023. Williams has done a better job keeping the ball in the yard but has allowed multiple runs in every start but one this season.
The Cubs have been hot over their last 15 games and rank in the top ten in most offensive categories against right-hand pitching. On the other hand, the Nationals have struggled a bit against righties but get to face Wesneski, who has been getting hit in bunches at the moment. Nationals Park is also in the top ten in home runs, which does wonders for the over. Lastly, we are getting +100 juice here on the over with two struggling arms on the mound.
Pick: Game total over nine runs (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS +140
MIN: Joe Ryan | CWS: Michael Kopech
Whenever Michael Kopech pitches, I find ways to pick on him. The Twins (17-12) and Joe Ryan will meet the White Sox (8-21) at Guaranteed Rate Field for game one of their divisional series. Ryan has been outstanding to start the season, pitching to a 5-0 record with a 2.81 ERA, 3.18 SIERA, 0.81 WHIP, and a 29.3% K. Kopech on the other hand, has struggled to a 0-3 record, 7.01 ERA, 5.10 SIERA, 1.71 WHIP and a 22.7% K. Advantage Twins on the bump.
The White Sox have been abysmal as of late, as they are 1-9 in their last ten games. They have some momentum as they won on Andrew Vaughn's walk-off home run on Sunday, but it came with Luis Robert getting pulled for jogging down the line. The White Sox looks to be already checked out, and so are the fans, it seems. (If you haven't seen the fan rant check out the tweet I posted. It's gold.) With Ryan on the bump, I’ll give the edge to the Twins.
Pick: Minnesota Twins moneyline (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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