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Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Monday and this article will focus on the six-game slate that starts at 6:40 p.m. Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, May 2, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 7-13 overall on the season, down 1.846 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. We will try to bounce back tonight! I am not going to do anything crazy to win it back, just stick with the process and hope it works out. One day at a time.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland A's
O/U: 7.0 | Moneyline: TAM -154
TAM: Drew Rasmussen| OAK: Daulton Jefferies
This is a game that I think is somewhat evenly matched, at least through the first five innings. Drew Rasmussen is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA while Daulton Jefferies is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA. The underlying metrics favor Rasmussen as he has a K-BB% of 18.9%, a career SIERA of 3.77, and a career xFIP of 3.54 while Jefferies has a 8.9% K-BB%, 4.82 career SIERA, and xFIP of 4.86 in his career. Right now, he is pitching better than those numbers.
Both of these offenses are in the lower half of the league in runs scored. Tampa Bay is averaging 4.18 runs per game while Oakland is averaging 3.8 runs per game. Add in the fact that this game is being played in Oakland, a pitchers park, and we could be in for a tight game here.
As far as bullpens go, Tampa Bay has the advantage here as well. Their bullpen ERA of 2.99 is No. 7 in baseball, while Oakland's bullpen ERA of 3.22 is No. 13 in baseball, closer to average.
If Tampa Bay has the advantage with their starting pitcher, with their offense, and their bullpen, then that's the team you are going to pick here right? Nope.
This is an example of why odds are important. All things equal, I like Tampa Bay, they should be the favored team. The issue is that their -154 odds imply a 60% win probability. It feels too high. I don't mind taking a stab at the +143 full game, but my preferred pick is the first five innings at +120.
Pick: Oakland Moneyline F5 (+120), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU -125
SEA: Marco Gonzales| HOU: Jake Odorizzi
Looking at these two starting pitchers and it is not a shock that this game has the highest total on the slate. To be honest, I expected the over/under here to be more like 9 runs which is why I am recommending to bet the over. If you want some analysis on this pick, continue reading below.
Marco Gonzales has a career xFIP of 4.56, and a career K-BB% of just 13%. He allowed 1.82 HR/9 in 2021 and so far is allowing 2.57 HR/9 this year. While Yuli Gurriel and Chas McCormick are the only players in the lineup that hit lefties better than righties, the Astros hit lefties pretty well still. Houston should do some damage to Gonzales here.
On the flip side, Jake Odorizzzi has a career 4.48 xFIP, K-BB% of 14.2% (but just 1.4% this year!), and a 1.22 HR/9. The 1.4% K-BB%is concerning. Walks are an issue, and putting unnecessary runners on base is a recipe for disaster. Add into the mix that Seattle is No. 1 in walk rate (10.7%) and it doesn't look good.
Both teams have pretty good bullpens, Seattle's is No. 5 while Houston's is No. 8 thus far. They will still allow some runs, it all depends on how early they are deployed into the game.
I can see both teams getting to five runs in this game easily. Seattle averages 4.6 runs per game. Houston has been scoring just 3.7 runs per game but that lineup is capable of doing more. If you combined their averages, they would score 8.3 runs, so all that is needed to go over the total would be to score a combined 0.7 more runs than expected which should happen based on these matchups.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110), FanDuel, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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