RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, May 15, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 21-17 (-0.44 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL +108
LAA: Shohei Ohtani | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez
After going 1-1 on our NRFI plays on Sunday, we'll look to grab a sweep to start this week off strong. We'll head out to Baltimore as Shohei Ohtani and the Angels come in for a four-game set.
The Angels will send the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani to the mound. Ohtani (4-1, 2.74 ERA) will look to keep his great 2023 season going forward here. Today, he projects to a 2.62 SIERA and a whopping 35.11% strikeout rate against the Orioles here. It won't be an easy task to keep up with his projections, as Baltimore has been awesome this season. They come into this one ranking 14th in wOBA (.316) and are right at the league average in wRC+ (100). They project to a .316 wOBA today as well.
The Orioles will send Grayson Rodriguez (2-0, 5.08 ERA) to the mound. The Orioles have been very good in Rodriguez starts, perhaps despite the young right-hander, who brings in a 10.16 H/9 and 1.54 WHIP. He'll have to look for some positive regression here, and it appears to be coming given his projected 3.82 SIERA.
However, the Angels, who come into this one ranked 12th in wOBA (.326) and 11th in wRC+ (105), project very well against G-Rod. They're looking at a .330 wOBA and 42.07% hard contact rate, clearing the O's in both categories.
The Angels have lost six straight meetings in Baltimore. However, I mentioned earlier that the O's have been winning essentially in spite of Rodriguez, so I'll bet against him here. I won't be looking at the full game moneyline, though, but rather the F5 moneyline, which we can get at -140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Angels F5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.4 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Cardinals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: STL -108
MIL: Freddy Peralta | STL: Jack Flaherty
As I'm typing this, St. Louis is finishing up their sweep of the Red Sox before they make the trek back home. We'll be betting against them here, backing the visiting Milwaukee Brewers, who are coming off of a home sweep of the Royals.
The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.32 ERA) to the mound. Peralta projects to a 3.66 SIERA against the Cardinals here, a team he's beaten once already this season in a 6-1 victory back on April 9. The Cardinals surprisingly rank ninth in wOBA (.329) and eighth in wRC+ (109) despite their poor start to the season. They project to a .316 wOBA and 34.73% hard contact rate today.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will send Jack Flaherty (2-4, 6.18 ERA) to the mound. It's not contrarian to say that Flaherty isn't the pitcher he once was, and it seems he's getting worse -- compiling a 2.58 WHIP and 12.75 ERA in his last three starts. He projects to a 5.12 SIERA against a Brewers lineup that ranks 12th in wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (104).
This play is mostly a "fade Jack Flaherty" play, and I'll keep bullpens out of it. We can get the F5 moneyline at FanDuel, and I'll run with it.
Pick: Brewers F5 Moneyline (-115), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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