X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/14/23)

Tony Gonsolin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.

Attention, fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 14, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks

2023 Regular Season: 20-16 (-0.22 units)

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Twins

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN -116
CHC: Marcus Stroman | MIN: Louie Varland

We managed to grab a sweep on Friday, and now we'll look to finish the week strong with a pair of NRFIs here for Sunday, starting out in Minnesota.

The Cubs will send Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28 ERA) to the mound. Stroman has been both incredibly effective and efficient thus far into the season, especially in the first inning. He's a perfect three-for-three on the road and a perfect eight-for-eight overall in terms of leaving opponents off of the scoreboard in 2023. He'll take on a Twins lineup that's scored in just three of 19 home first innings, in seven of 38 opening frames overall, and in just one of their last ten games.

The Twins will send right-handed Louie Varland to the mound. Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) is making just his fourth start of the season, and unlike Stroman, has relatively struggled in the opening frame this season. Despite being perfect in his only home start, he is 0-2 to the NRFI on the road. Fortunately, he gets a home start this afternoon against a Cubs lineup that's only scored in four of 16 road games, and in just 12 of 38 overall, including just three of their last ten.

We're getting relatively solid odds on the NRFI here on FanDuel, where the odds sit at -136. My model gives the NRFI a 64.88% chance of hitting here, good for implied odds of -185.

Pick: First-Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs (-136), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.36 units to win 1 unit.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Dodgers

O/U: 9.5  | Moneyline: LAD -174
SD: Ryan Weathers | LAD: Tony Gonsolin

We'll head out west for our second play of the day, and we'll take a look at an "unlikely" NRFI. Normally I don't look to take NRFIs on plays with a total greater than 8.5, but I do see some value here.

The Padres will send lefty Ryan Weathers (1-1, 2.50 ERA) to the mound for his fourth start of the season. The former seventh overall pick has been good in the first inning this season, allowing a tally in just one of three starts overall, and is a perfect one-for-one in road starts. He'll get a tough matchup against the Dodgers here, who have scored in the opening frame in eight of 19 home games as well as 17 of 39 games overall, including six of their last ten.

He'll take on Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.93 ERA), who is also making his fourth start of the season. Some would say that Gonsolin has been very lucky throughout his career, with his ERA always being much lower than his "expected" numbers. Nevertheless, he's a perfect three-for-three in terms of keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the first inning this season, which includes his lone home start. He'll take on a Padres lineup that's scored in just five of 18 road first innings and in 13 of 39 overall, including three of their last ten.

As I mentioned previously, I consider this one "unlikely" given the higher run total. I wanted to take a look at the projected wOBA and hard contact stats to be sure. The Padres bring in a projected .306 wOBA and 21.99% hard contact rate, while the Dodgers bring in a projected .275 wOBA and 28.6% hard contact rate. My model gives the NRFI a 64.45% chance of hitting here, good for implied odds of -181. FanDuel is giving us odds of +114 here, so we're going to take the expected value and run with it.

Pick: First-Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs (+114), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.14 units.

Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Porter Jr.59 mins ago

Expected To Be Available Saturday
Atlanta Falcons1 hour ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Damian Lillard1 hour ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday's Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 hour ago

Probable For Saturday
Lonzo Ball1 hour ago

Remains Out For Saturday
Indianapolis Colts1 hour ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Trendon Watford1 hour ago

Will Miss Saturday's Game
Chet Holmgren1 hour ago

Resting Versus Detroit
Nicolas Claxton1 hour ago

Resting On Saturday
Pittsburgh Steelers1 hour ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Josh Giddey2 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Saturday
Noah Clowney2 hours ago

To Remain Out Against Celtics
Kenny Yeboah2 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams2 hours ago

Signs With Eagles
Cam Thomas2 hours ago

Sits Out First Leg Of Back-To-Back Saturday
Jalen Williams2 hours ago

Still Out On Saturday
Coby White2 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday
Kene Nwangwu2 hours ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Cody Martin2 hours ago

Cleared To Return Friday
Eli White2 hours ago

Appears Likely To Open Season In Utility Role
Trey Lyles2 hours ago

Misses Friday's Game Due To Back Soreness
Tommy Henry2 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Grayson Allen2 hours ago

Not Playing Friday
Trey Jemison III2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Nuggets
Blake Walston2 hours ago

To Have Tommy John Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski2 hours ago

Brewers Reassign Jacob Misiorowski To Minor-League Camp
Gabe Vincent2 hours ago

Sits Out Friday's Game
Nick Richards2 hours ago

Sitting Out On Friday
Dorian Finney-Smith2 hours ago

Sidelined On Friday
Erik Swanson2 hours ago

Diagnosed With "Median Nerve Entrapment"
Domantas Sabonis2 hours ago

Back In Action On Friday
Shane Baz2 hours ago

Not Worried About Spring Training Results
Zeke Nnaji2 hours ago

Active On Friday
Mason Adams4 hours ago

Exits With Elbow Injury
Will Klein4 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A Tacoma
Simi Fehoko4 hours ago

Signing With Cardinals
Kylen Granson4 hours ago

Headed To Philadelphia
Jared Shuster4 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Sterling Shepard4 hours ago

Remaining With Buccaneers
José Buttó4 hours ago

Jose Butto Dealing With Groin Injury
Cincinnati Bengals5 hours ago

Bengals Not Ruling Out Trey Hendrickson Extension
Wenceel Pérez5 hours ago

Wenceel Perez Receives Injection, Expected To Be Ready For Opening Day
Jose Trevino5 hours ago

Exits Early On Friday
Cooper Kupp5 hours ago

Signing With Seahawks
Jake Cronenworth5 hours ago

Not Expected To Play First Base
Lance McCullers Jr.5 hours ago

To Make Grapefruit League Debut On Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton5 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Calf Injury
Jacob deGrom5 hours ago

Throws In Minor-League Game On Friday
Wilyer Abreu5 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut On Saturday, Could Be Ready For Opening Day
Grayson Rodriguez6 hours ago

Should Begin Throwing Progression Next Week
Karel Vejmelka6 hours ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Kyle Wright6 hours ago

Hoping To Face Live Hitters Next Week
Dustin Wolf6 hours ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund6 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Alec Marsh6 hours ago

Continues To Build Up His Arm
Bobby Witt Jr.6 hours ago

Does Some Hitting On Friday
Sam Colangelo6 hours ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting6 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Dallas Cowboys6 hours ago

Dante Fowler Jr. Heading Back To Cowboys
Andrei Svechnikov6 hours ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers6 hours ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Buffalo Bills6 hours ago

Larry Ogunjobi, Michael Hoecht Both Facing Six-Game PED Suspensions
Tee Higgins7 hours ago

Bengals Making Headway On Contracts For Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase
Ben Skowronek8 hours ago

Back With Steelers
Minnesota Vikings8 hours ago

Eric Wilson Returns To Minnesota
Pharaoh Brown8 hours ago

Heading To Miami
Minnesota Vikings8 hours ago

Justin Skule Signs With Vikings
Mackenzie Blackwood9 hours ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Rasmus Ristolainen9 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Lian Bichsel9 hours ago

Not Playing On Friday
Josh Norris9 hours ago

Undergoing Evaluation
JJ Peterka10 hours ago

Not Playing On Saturday
Neal Pionk10 hours ago

Viewed As Week-To-Week
Kareem Hunt10 hours ago

Chiefs Bring Back Kareem Hunt On One-Year Deal
Philadelphia Eagles10 hours ago

Eagles Open To Trading Bryce Huff
Cooper Kupp10 hours ago

Asking For $15 Million Per Year
Roman Dolidze14 hours ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori14 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani15 hours ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos15 hours ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh15 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez15 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson16 hours ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear16 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Quinton Byfield16 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Straight Game
Jesper Bratt16 hours ago

Posts Second Straight Three-Point Performance
Brendson Ribeiro16 hours ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Tristan Jarry16 hours ago

Picks Up Third Straight Victory
Diyar Nurgozhay16 hours ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Adin Hill16 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Blue Jackets On Thursday
MMA17 hours ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Sam Bennett17 hours ago

Strikes Twice In Victory
Brady Tkachuk17 hours ago

Suffers Minor Injury On Thursday
Kevin Vallejos17 hours ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Charlie Lindgren1 day ago

Gets The Nod Against Kings Thursday
Filip Gustavsson1 day ago

Starts Against Rangers Thursday
Jacob Bridgeman3 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard3 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips3 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler3 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter3 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young3 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim3 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy3 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA3 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman3 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee3 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron4 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry4 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith5 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner5 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos5 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Is Chase Elliott Worth Rostering At Phoenix This Week For DFS?
Joey Logano6 days ago

Will Be A Top Contender To Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Is Difficult to Recommend As A DFS Option
Carson Hocevar6 days ago

Is Not An Ideal Driver To Add To Phoenix DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski6 days ago

Is A Solid DFS Choice For Phoenix Lineups
Austin Cindric6 days ago

Could Be Worth Using In Phoenix Tournament Lineups
Kyle Busch6 days ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Kyle Busch At Phoenix?
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Is Michael McDowell Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ty Gibbs6 days ago

Is A DFS Recommendation Despite Inconsistent Track History At Phoenix
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering In DFS For Phoenix This Week?
Cole Custer6 days ago

Is An Underrated DFS Value Pick For Phoenix Lineups
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

DFS Value Likely Hinges On How Much He Leads
Chase Briscoe6 days ago

Despite Strong Phoenix Record, Chase Briscoe Qualifies Inexplicably Poorly
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF