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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, May 12, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 18-16 (-2.22 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN -160
CHC: Drew Smyly | MIN: Sonny Gray
We were unable to effectively bounce back on Monday, with some bad luck and some bad pitching getting the better of us. We keep moving forward though, as I'll take a look at a pair of F5s today, starting out in Minnesota.
The Cubs will send Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05 ERA) to the mound. Smyly has been a pleasant surprise this season, though his 4.48 xFIP shows some potential regression. However, I have him projected to a 4.19 SIERA today and project him to allow just 21.77% hard contact. He'll take on a Twins lineup that projects to a .283 wOBA while ranking 27th in wOBA (.286) and 26th in wRC+ (81) against left-handed pitching.
The Cubs will take on Sonny Gray. Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA) has to be the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award early on. While his 3.48 xFIP does imply some regression, it's still a rather impressive number. He projects to a 3.59 SIERA and is projected to allow just a 21.97% hard contact rate and a 28.28% strikeout rate. The Cubs project to just a .292 wOBA and come into this game ranking top 10 in the MLB in wOBA (.333) and wRC+ (108).
We'll take a look at the F5 under here, which we can get at -132 on FanDuel. Assuming these pitchers just have a relatively good day compared to how they've pitched this season, we should cruise to this one.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-132), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.32 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Athletics
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: OAK +165
TEX: Martin Perez | OAK: Ken Waldichuk
We got burned on a pair of F5 run lines on Monday, but I will go right back to it tonight as the Rangers head to Oakland to take on the Athletics.
The Rangers will send Martin Perez (4-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound. Perez has surely regressed from the level he was at last season, with his ground ball rate dropping and home run rate rising. I project him to an unimpressive 5.06 SIERA in this one against an A's lineup that's actually relatively good against southpaws, ranking 19th in wOBA (.317) and 15th in wRC+ (107). I project them to just a .271 wOBA in this one, though.
The A's will be sending Ken Waldichuk to the mound. Waldichuk (1-2, 7.25 ERA) has had a very uninspiring start to 2023. While his xFIP shows some regression (5.64), I don't think it'll come today. He projects to a 5.17 SIERA today as well as a 31.05% hard contact rate allowed. It'll be a tough go of it against a Rangers lineup that ranks third in both wOBA (.353) and wRC+ (126) and projects to a whopping .370 wOBA in this one.
We're getting the F5 run line at -130 on FanDuel here, which I believe is great value on this line.
Pick: Rangers F5 -0.5 (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.3 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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