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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/11/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's a small six-game MLB schedule so we better get to it! Let's check out the best MLB bets for Thursday, May 11, 2023 and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can get on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: Rays (-116)
TB: Drew Rasmussen | NYY: Domingo German
It's an AL East battle tonight in the Bronx as the Rays and Yankees get together with Drew Rasmussen and Domingo German going toe-to-toe on the rubber. Something tells me both of these lads will be successful on this Thursday evening.
Rasmussen has been yet another fantastic acquisition by the Rays. The former Brewer owns a 3.11 ERA on the campaign but also a 2.83 FIP and a 3.61 SIERA. In other words, his peripheral numbers back up what has been a dynamite start to the season for the right-hander.
In the other dugout, we have righty Domingo German. German owns a 4.35 on the season but his 3.65 SIERA and 20.5% K-BB% are mightily encouraging. We'll see how it goes from here but his 28.2% K% is above his 25% career mark but it's obviously encouraging that he's seen an uptick in punchouts this season. He's never had any issues with control as he owns a stellar 7.3% BB% for his career.
Of course, the Rays' offense has come out of the gate white-hot. They lead baseball in several categories but they've also scored just six runs over their last three games. In other words, they have predictably cooled off at the plate.
As for the Yanks, they sit 18th with a .312 wOBA on the season. This is an offense that has been bitten by injuries but it doesn't appear to be a juggernaut that we've come accustomed to. They'll have their hands full with Rasmussen in this one.
All told I wouldn't expect many runs crossing the plate tonight in New York, so sign me up for the under.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SF (-146)
SF: Alex Cobb | ARI: Tommy Henry
We had an AL East battle with our first pick and now we'll switch gears to an NL West tilt between the Giants and D-backs tonight from Arizona.
Tommy Henry gets the nod for the home side this evening and he's the base for this pick. With all due respect to the left-hander, he hasn't been very good in his three big-league starts so far this season. The southpaw has turned in a 5.17 ERA but also a 6.40 xFIP and 6.28 SIERA. He's walked 10.4% of the hitters he has faced to this point but the problem is he's struck out exactly 10.4% of the hitter he's faced. A 0.0% K-BB% is not ideal at the game's highest level.
Henry's offense has been shockingly potent this season but the underrated Alex Cobb toes the rubber for the visitors in this one. The right-hander has turned in a 2.01 ERA in seven starts this season but also a 2.91 FIP and 3.07 SIERA. In 40 1/3 innings this season, the veteran has walked just six hitters against 38 punchouts, good for a rock-solid 19% K-BB%. A 63.1% ground-ball rate doesn't hurt, either.
We have two top-10 offenses going in this one. The D-backs rank seventh with a .333 wOBA on the season while the Giants are 10th with a .328 mark. The problem with San Fran is they rank 26th against left-handed pitching while the D-backs sit fifth with a .340 mark against righties.
The good news is we're getting a reasonable moneyline price on the far superior starting pitcher here. I'll leave the bullpens out of this one and grab Cobb to outduel Henry in the first five innings tonight.
Pick: Giants F5 moneyline (-144, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
Good luck, folks!
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