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Happy Sunday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 9, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 5-3-0 (+1.2 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -188
CIN: Connor Overton | PHI: Taijuan Walker
We broke even on Wednesday, going 1-1 for neither a positive nor negative unit change. While we took a loss on an NRFI on Wednesday, we'll be looking at a pair today. If you're familiar with my articles you'll know that Sundays are for NRFIs. Let's break it down.
The Reds will be sending Connor Overton to the mound. Overton allowed three runs in the first inning of his first start of the season Monday night against the Cubs. However, he didn't allow a first-inning tally in any of his four starts in 2022. I'll back him here against a Phillies lineup that's scored just one first-inning run in their first seven games of the young campaign.
Conversely, the Phillies will be sending offseason addition Taijuan Walker to the mound. Walker didn't have a great start in his Phillies debut up in New York earlier in the week. However, centerfielder Brandon Marsh did do much to help matters in that one. Walker allowed 12 runs in the first inning across 29 starts in 2022, but I'll back him in this one against a Reds lineup that doesn't have much to offer.
We're getting really good odds on this line, at just -113 on FanDuel Sportsbook. My data model gives the first inning under a 73.68% chance of hitting, good for "implied" odds of -280. I'll place this to win one unit.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-113) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -156
STL: Jake Woodford | MIL: Freddy Peralta
We'll head out to Milwaukee for the second NRFI of the day.
The visiting Cardinals will be sending Jake Woodford to the mound. Woodford got roughed up in his first start against Atlanta, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings. He did allow a run in the first inning in that one but did hold the Cubs scoreless in his lone start of 2022. I'll back him here against the Brewers who have scored a run just once in their first eight games of 2023.
On the other side, the home team Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta was great in the first inning at Miller Park last season, allowing a run in just three of ten starts. He's also a perfect 1-0 to start the season in the first inning, following six shutout innings against the Mets on Monday.
The Cardinals have some firepower at the top of their lineup and did score two runs last night in Milwaukee, but I'll back Peralta to hold things down here.
We're getting another good line here on FanDuel, with the first inning under at -118. My data model is projecting the under to hit at a 61.68% rate, good for implied odds of -161.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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