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Welcome to the 2023 baseball season! I’m excited to work alongside the RotoBaller team, delivering free MLB betting content. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize again this baseball season, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 2/2 on my betting picks last weekend! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for April 8, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TBR -275
DET: Shintaro Fujinami | TBR: Jeffrey Springs
As a jumping-off point, Tampa Bay brings a huge advantage at starting pitcher. Jeffrey Springs’ stock is as high as it’s ever been, and that hype is not undeserved. He opened his 2023 campaign with a six-inning, 12-strikeout performance, surrendering just one walk, no hits, and no runs against the Detroit Tigers. This builds off a dominant preseason, where Springs tossed 14 shutout innings alongside a 0.50 WHIP and 24 strikeouts. That was only spring training, but the point stands – nobody has scored on Springs in quite some time.
On the other side, Shintaro Fujinami has much to figure out if he’s going to find success in MLB. His debut was a disaster, surrendering eight earned runs on five hits and three walks across 2 1/3 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Angels. While I’m not necessarily expecting Fujinami will repeat this performance, the control issues are not a recent development. Fijunami owns a lifetime 4.1 BB/9 during his ten-year NPB career. He also walked 17 batters in 18 2/3 innings during spring training, so this figures to be an issue for the foreseeable future.
Looking beyond the starting pitcher matchup, Tampa Bay still has a noticeable pitching advantage. Their 2.16 bullpen ERA ranks fourth-best in the majors entering Saturday. Meanwhile, Oakland’s bullpen is middle-of-the-road so far, managing a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and that may be considered over-performing given their lack of depth.
Offensively, the disparity between these two lineups is vast. Tampa may not bring the scariest lineup on paper, but guys like Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco are capable of inflicting serious damage. The Rays also lead the majors with 53 runs scored this season, good for 7.6 runs per game. Oakland’s lineup is about as quiet as an offense gets, headlined by Seth Brown, Aledmys Diaz, and Jesus Aguilar. They’ve scored just 27 total runs this season or 3.8 per game.
This game is essentially a mismatch at every level. The Rays sit at 7-0 with a +35 run differential to start the season. Conversely, Oakland has stumbled to a 2-5 start with a -23 run differential. Upsets are not really a thing in baseball, but an Oakland victory here would be one. I’m confident taking the Rays to win here at -1.5 runs.
Pick: Rays -1.5 Run Line (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Pirates
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHW -125
CHW: Mike Clevinger | PIT: Vince Velasquez
Game one of this series saw the White Sox and Pirates combine for 21 runs. I’m not one to go box score chasing, but there is reason to believe in another offensive showcase on Saturday. The pitching matchup is much shakier than the 9-run total lets on.
Mike Clevinger impressed during his 2023 debut, tossing five shutout innings, allowing three hits, three walks, and striking out eight against the Astros. It was a vintage performance from the once-regarded hurler. That said, I’m not convinced Clevinger has suddenly returned to his pre-2020 form. He’s 32 years old, coming off his worst season since he was a rookie, posting a 4.33 ERA and 4.99 FIP, and he lost all of 2021 to injury. There’s more than enough reason to doubt the sustainability of Clevinger’s strong first outing.
After Clevinger, things get even more interesting. The White Sox bullpen has been atrocious this season, ranking dead last in the majors with a 9.62 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Long term, they may turn it around behind guys like Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, and (hopefully) Liam Hendriks. For now, they’re a mess, and opposing teams will capitalize on it while they can.
Even if everything related to pitching somehow clicks into place for the White Sox today, Vince Velasquez can surrender enough runs to cover the run total all on his own. He survived his first start of the season, allowing three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Reds, but Velasquez is capable of much worse. He ranked in the bottom percentile among all pitchers last season with a 91.6 MPH average exit velocity and 13% barrel rate, resulting in a 4.78 ERA, which was actually his best since the 2016 campaign – yikes.
Between guys like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert Jr., Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz, I trust these two teams can take advantage of a weak pitching matchup. If for no other reason than because Vince Velasquez is pitching, you can feel good about betting over nine total runs.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers!
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