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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into this next week.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 7, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 1-5-0 (-4.09 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PIT +105
BAL: Dean Kremer | PIT: Marco Gonzales
We had a rough go of things on Friday, with both teams failing to show face until the later innings. Nevertheless, we're back at it today with a pair of plays, starting in Pittsburgh.
The visiting Orioles will send Dean Kremer (0-0, 5.06 ERA) to the mound. Kremer was fine in his season debut against the Royals, allowing three runs on three hits while striking out five. His Achilles in that start was the long ball, allowing two, but he looks to regress positively in that department as my model has him at just a projected 4.71% HR rate today. He projects to a 3.12 xFIP against a Pirates offense that projects to just a .272 wOBA against him today.
The Pirates will send recent acquisition Marco Gonzales to the mound for the rubber match in this series. Gonzales (0-0, 1.80 ERA) posted five strong innings against the Nationals on Monday, allowing a single run on four hits and two walks, while striking out two. Gonzales projects strongly (3.67 xFIP), as do the Orioles here (.366). It should be a strength-against-strength matchup, but I'm favoring a specific team here...
That team would be the Orioles, who despite a solid 5-3 start feel like they've come slow out of the gate. After a rough go of things against Bailey Falter on Saturday, I expect the Orioles to show a strong bounce back heading into the Monday off. I'll grab their money line at -122 on FanDuel.
Pick: Orioles Money Line (-122), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Royals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: KC -132
CWS: Garrett Crochet | KC: Alec Marsh
I'll head to the midwest for my second play of the afternoon, a no runs first inning bet, or an NRFI, the first of the year.
The White Sox will send Garrett Crochet (1-1, 1.38 ERA) to the mound. Crochet has come out of the gate very strongly starting games and putting up some impressive numbers. Crochet has thrown 13 innings across his two starts, allowing just two earned runs on eight hits and 16 strikeouts to just one walk. He has kept his opponents off the scoreboard in the first inning in each of those starts, and while Bobby Witt Jr. poses a threat against any pitcher, I trust Crochet to pitch a clean first for the third consecutive time.
Garrett Crochet, 95mph Paint. 🖌️🎨
7th K pic.twitter.com/QJQ1ehnW5I
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2024
The Royals will send Alec Marsh (1-0, 1.29 ERA) to the mound for his second start of the season. Marsh was very impressive against Baltimore on Tuesday, tossing seven innings on one-run ball, allowing just two hits, a walk, and striking out five. He kept the Orioles off the board in the first on Tuesday, and I expect a repeat performance this afternoon.
If you have followed, or continue to follow these articles, you'll know I love a NRFI bet in the right spot. Not only is this the right spot for one, we're also getting some incredible value here. I'll grab the first inning under at -113 on FanDuel.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-113), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.77 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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