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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
The weekend is here and let's get to it! I'm Brenton Kemp and we're back with some of the best bets you will find on this fine Friday slate. There's a mix of afternoon matchups combined with some evening contests with plenty of value on the board.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Friaday's free MLB picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYM (-196)
MIA: Edward Cabrera | NYM: Tylor Megill
The Marlins and right-hander Edward Cabrera head to Queens to take on the New York Mets and righty Tylor Megill on Friday afternoon and the visiting side has a solid lane to provide some value in this matchup.
Cabrera burst onto the scene with a 3.01 ERA across 14 starts last season and while his peripherals weren't as kind he boasts the stuff to make it work. The right-hander averaged in excess of 96 mph on his four-seam fastball a season ago and has a sinking fastball that checked in with an average of more than 97 mph in his first start of the 2023 campaign.
As for Megill, he's had some struggles at the big-league level. The righty has turned in a 4.69 ERA across 142 MLB frames including a 5.13 mark last season in 15 appearances and nine starts with the big club. He held his own in his first start of this season against this same Marlins team when he tossed five innings of two-run ball with seven punchouts in a winning effort on April 1, however.
Today’s pitching matchup against the Marlins at 1:10 PM:
RHP Tylor Megill
1-0 (1 GS)
3.60 ERA
1.60 WHIP
12.6 K/9
131 ERA+Vs
RHP Edward Cabrera
0-0 (1 GS)
4.50 ERA
2.00 WHIP
4.5 K/9
107 ERA+Mets look to get back on track in their home opener with Megill on the mound. #LGM pic.twitter.com/JPqC75qOeW
— NYM Stats (@nym_stats) April 7, 2023
While the Mets were targeted as an NL East favorite this season they have gotten off to a rotten start at the plate. The Marlins haven't been any better but the fact that the Mets sit 24th with a .289 wOBA while the Marlins are one spot behind with a .288 mark is telling when peaking at these money line odds. The Mets boast a superior lineup on paper but have struggled out of the gate.
The value in this matchup is on the visiting side as we'll ride with the Marlins on the money line in this one.
Pick: Marlins money line (+164), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: White Sox (-134)
CWS: Lucas Giolito | PIT: Rich Hill
It's a rare interleague matchup between the White Sox and Pirates on Friday afternoon as Lucas Giolitio toes the rubber versus Rich Hill and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Looked upon as a Cy Young contender last season, Giolito stumbled to a 4.90 ERA across 30 starts for the White Sox last season but his 4.06 FIP and 3.66 xFIP were much more favorable of his work. The right-hander hurled five innings of two-run ball with just one walk against six strikeouts as part of a no-decision against the Astros in his first start of the season.
Call me crazy but I'm of the opinion the 43-year-old Hill might struggle this season. He worked to a decent 4.27 ERA last season across 26 starts but surrendered three earned runs despite striking out seven in his first start of the 2023 campaign. Keep in mind Hill's ERA figure from last season was the worst mark he's put forth since he posted a 6.28 mark with the 2013 Cleveland Indians. Hill continues to eat innings but this White Sox offense may have a feast on Friday.
Eloy Jimenez might be on the injured list but this is a White Sox offense to be reckoned with. They'll stack their righties against the southpaw and should have their way against an offense that is far inferior to them. I don't expect this one to be particularly close.
We're getting solid odds on the money line here so let's keep it simple and grab the White Sox to win this one on the money line.
Pick: White Sox money line, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck folks!
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