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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into the weekend.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, April 5, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 1-3-0 (-2.09 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Rockies
O/U: 12.5 | Moneyline: COL +148
TB: Zack Littell | COL: Austin Gomber
I'll start things out today in Colorado as we have our first Coors game of the year. Obviously, when it comes to Coors, people often look to totals, but today, I'll be looking at a side.
The Rays will send Zack Littell (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound today. Littell had a solid outing against Toronto last Saturday, going six scoreless innings, allowing four hits, two walks, and striking out six. He projects to continue to positively regress on his 2023 numbers, projecting to a 3.44 xFIP. He'll take on a Rockies lineup that projects to just a .311 wOBA. The numbers aren't terrible on the Colorado side, but I think Liddell keeps their bats at bay.
Zack Littell's 6Ks thru 6. pic.twitter.com/WQnELKDZt9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2024
It'll be Austin Gomber (0-0, 7.71 ERA) taking the ball for Colorado this afternoon. Gomber went just 4.2 innings in Saturday's start against the Diamondbacks. He allowed four earned runs on six hits and three walks while striking out three. Gomber projects to a 4.68 xFIP today, which is better than his 2023 number (5.08), but he'll take on a Rays offense that projects to an astounding team wOBA of .411 today.
It's a bit chalky, but I'll back Littell and the Rays in the first five innings today, grabbing their F5 money line at -160 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rays F5 Money Line (-160), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -275
ARI: Tommy Henry | ATL: Spencer Strider
I'll head out to Atlanta for my second play of the day as we have the defending NL Champs, the Arizona Diamondbacks, taking on the odds-on favorite to be the NL Champions this year, the Atlanta Braves.
We have a bit of a starting pitcher mismatch here, as the Diamondbacks will send Tommy Henry (0-1, 11.25 ERA) to the mound. Henry got touched for five runs in four innings against the Rockies last Saturday. He does project to positively regress somewhat on his 2023 numbers, as he comes in with a projected 4.24 xFIP. Things won't get any easier for him today, though, as he takes on a Braves lineup that was the best in the league against southpaws in 2023, and projects to a .400 wOBA today.
Spencer Strider (0-0, 3.60 ERA) will take the ball for Atlanta today. Strider dominated the first four innings of his Opening Day start in Philadelphia before Brandon Marsh took him deep for a two-run homer in the fifth. I anticipate him to bounce back today against Arizona as he projects to a 2.63 xFIP, while the Diamondbacks project to a .275 wOBA today.
While the Diamondbacks' bullpen was certainly a strength during the 2023 Postseason, I believe the Braves still have the advantage there today. I'll back the Braves on the run line, which we can get at -130 on DraftKings today.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-130), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.77 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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