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We have a modestly sized slate Thursday, as there are only six games on tap and all but one will be played in the afternoon. We're starting to get somewhat of a feel for hitters and pitchers at this point with a week's worth of games in the books, but naturally, there's still plenty of unpredictability at play with the season in such a nascent stage.
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Today, Thursday, April 4, we hone in on a matchup in each league, including an NL matinee clash. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL -144
MIA: Ryan Weathers | STL: Lance Lynn
The Marlins' generally poor offensive performances to start the season and Lance Lynn's surprisingly solid first start against the Dodgers prevent this projected run total from being even higher. However, I'm a believer in both of those early trends reversing to an extent Thursday, putting me in the camp of the Over.
Miami's lineup has too much talent to continue scuffling as much as it has to open the campaign. The Marlins are an alarming 0-7 and have scored four runs or fewer in all but two of those contests. Yet, conventional wisdom/past body of work tells us the likes of Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. aren't going to hit under .200 very much longer. Josh Bell and Tim Anderson will also likely get into a groove in their own right in fairly short order.
Lynn could well be a pitcher to facilitate such a course correction. He did deftly escape trouble against the Dodgers on a couple of occasions early while tossing four scoreless innings on Saturday, but he let the ball get in the air frequently and gave up an average of a hit per inning. Lynn looked absolutely cooked at times last season for the White Sox while allowing a career-high, jaw-dropping 44 homers in 32 starts, and he pitched to plenty of contact this spring while posting a 7.90 ERA and 1.68 WHIP across 13.2 innings.
On the other side, Ryan Weathers arguably has just as grim an outlook. The southpaw had a solid spring but then opened the season by surrendering seven hits and three runs over just four innings versus the Pirates. Weathers entered 2024 with a career 5-15 mark, 5.88 ERA, and 1.53 WHIP in 46 career appearances (31 starts).
Lynn has had trouble against three of the Marlins' most talented hitters, with Arraez, Anderson, and Chisholm going a combined 16-for-45 (.356) with four doubles, three homers, and 10 RBI against the veteran righty in their careers. Meanwhile, Weathers, who's surrendered a .297 average and .383 wOBA to righty bats during his career, is facing a lineup featuring several very potent ones in the form of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras.
Considering the Marlins already have a fatigued bullpen as well due to early-season rotation struggles, I'm firmly of the belief some runs will pile up in the afternoon sunshine.
Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Royals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: KCR -162
CWS: Michael Soroka | KCR: Seth Lugo
Neither the White Sox nor Royals have started the year in anything resembling encouraging fashion, with the two teams bringing up the rear in the AL Central with a combined 3-8 record. Kansas City, which lost 106 games a year ago and 97 the season prior, doesn't exactly have high expectations this season, but the same can't be said about Chicago despite its own triple-digit loss season in 2023.
The ChiSox have some potent bats in their lineup, including Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Yoan Moncada. Thursday's starting pitcher is another high-upside asset in Michael Soroka, a 2015 first-round pick of the Braves who was once one of the more promising pitching prospects in baseball after a stellar 2019 rookie campaign. Multiple Achilles tears then cost him all of the 2021 and 2022 seasons and hamstring and forearm injuries limited him to seven appearances last season. However, Soroka is finally healthy again.
The right-hander did pitch to contact against the Tigers over five innings in his season debut, but he put together an impressive spring where he pitched to a 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and .156 BAA across 13 innings in four starts. The Royals have already started the season in poor form at the plate against righties, posting a 26.4 percent strikeout rate, .208 average, and .297 wOBA in that split over 140 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Lugo fired six scoreless innings in his first start of the season against the Twins, although he took a no-decision thanks to KC's inability to score more than one run. The veteran right-hander's early success isn't necessarily surprising, considering he generated a 3.56 ERA alongside a 15-12 mark over the previous three seasons. He also did a reasonably good job keeping the ball in the park over that span.
Chicago's offense has yet to get going in its own right, generating a .204 average, .286 wOBA, and -3.1 wRAA against righties thus far in the new season. With Lugo's ability to limit damage and Chicago averaging an AL-low 2.2 runs per game, in addition to Soroka being in a favorable matchup in his own right, I'll go with a pair of bets here that bank on a relatively modest amount of runs being scored.
Picks: Under 8.5 runs (-115, BetMGM Sportsbook) // Under 4.5 runs - First 5.o innings (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
