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Happy Monday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, April 3, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 3-1-0 (+1.4 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN +110
CHC: Drew Smyly | CIN: Connor Overton
Let's hit this week off with a bang. I'll head down to Cincinnati to take a look at a moneyline. I think the Cubs have a decent advantage here relative to their odds.
The visiting Cubs are sending veteran southpaw Drew Smyly to the mound. Smyly is coming off a relatively good 2022, going 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA. He won both of his starts at Great American Ball Park last season, allowing just three runs in 10.2 innings of work. He projects to a 4.18 xFIP against a Reds lineup that projects to just a .283 wOBA and 27.8% hard contact rate.
Conversely, the Reds will be sending righty Connor Overton to the mound. Overton went 1-0 with a 2.73 ERA across 33 innings of work in 2022. This includes 5.1 scoreless innings against Chicago, where he allowed just two hits. He doesn't project to be so lucky today though, with a 4.89 projected xFIP against this newly rebuilt Cubs lineup that projects to a .327 wOBA and 33.1% hard contact rate.
The best odds I could find as I'm typing this are both on FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get the Cubs moneyline at -120.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Padres
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SD -152
ARI: Ryne Nelson | SD: Ryan Weathers
We'll head out west for our second play of the day once again. Whether you're on PrizePicks or playing DFS tonight and looking for games to target, I think I've found one right here.
The Diamondbacks will send right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson to the mound tonight. Nelson pitched extremely well against the Padres last season, allowing just three runs in 12.1 innings. However, he projects to a 4.69 xFIP against this potent Padres lineup that projects to a .318 wOBA and 38.09% hard contact rate. Outside of Saturday night's game where they plated nine runs, we haven't seen the full effects of this Padres lineup (and we won't see its true potential until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns). But if there's a night to break out, tonight is the night.
On the other side, the home team Padres will send southpaw Ryan Weathers to the mound. Weathers threw just 3.2 innings in 2022, where he allowed four runs. While I don't expect things to fall off the rails that badly with him, he does project to a 6.36 xFIP in this one against a Diamondbacks lineup that projects to a .319 wOBA and 31% hard contact rate. Like the Padres, Arizona's offense hasn't come alive in 2023, but tonight sure seems like a good night to break out.
We're getting a good line at 8.5 on FanDuel, where the odds are just -104. This just feels like it'll be a high-scoring affair, and I'm betting that it will be.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-104) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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