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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 5-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for April 29, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Nationals
O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: PIT -130
PIT: Rich Hill | WSH: Patrick Corbin
We'll start with an early-day game between the Pirates and the Nationals. This game features an underwhelming pitching matchup, with Rich Hill squaring off against Patrick Corbin. Both pitchers have their best days long behind them, and I anticipate an offense-heavy game unfolding here.
Rich Hill enters play with a 6.92 xERA, .494 xFIP, .577 xSLG, .296 xBA, 14.8% barrel rate, and 18.7% whiff rate. In short, he is not fooling anyone at this point. That applies double to right-handed hitters who are slashing .289/.354/.589 this season against Hill, including seven home runs and six doubles. For all the deficiencies of Washington's lineup, having right-handed batters that can hit southpaw pitching is not one of them. The Nationals rank ninth in the majors with a .760 OPS against left-handed pitchers behind underrated names like Stone Garrett, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, and Alex Call. It's not a scary lineup, but Rich Hill is a bad pitcher these days.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin has been tossing batting practice for about four seasons now. His xERA sits at 6.66 this season, up from 6.41 in 2022 and 5.61 in 2021, and the sample size is not small. Corbin's numbers only look worse the more you dig, sporting a .533 xSLG, 4.45 xFIP, .389 xwOBA, and a staggering .333 xBA. Throwing out preconceptions about the Pirates, they have been an impressive offense this season. Pittsburgh scores 5.08 runs per game, including a .816 OPS against left-handed pitching – the fifth-best mark in the majors.
Between two awful starting pitchers and two offenses that specialize in hitting left-handed pitching, I predict an explosive offensive showcase in this game. I'm taking the over on 9.0 total runs scored in this game.
Pick: Over 9.0 total runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX -145
NYY: Jhony Brito | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi
Moving on to the evening games, this Yankees-Rangers matchup feels like an opportunity. The Yankees enter play undermanned. They carry a middling .717 OPS against right-handed pitching this season with a 25.2% strikeout rate. That is further complicated by the absence of Aaron Judge due to his hip injury, and Giancarlo Stanton remains on the shelf, leaving the Yankees' offense severely depleted. This offense is far from full strength.
Taking the mound for Texas is Nathan Eovaldi. He's had a rocky start to the campaign, posting a 5.20 ERA through his first five outings. That said, the underlying metrics indicate positive regression is on the way. Eovaldi sports a much more palatable 3.87 xERA alongside a 3.24 xFIP, .302 xwOBA, 30.4% whiff rate, and a phenomenal 2.5% barrel rate. Further, he has pitched at least five innings in every start this season and allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of five appearances.
For the Yankees, Jhony Brito gets the nod. The rookie has failed to make it through five innings in each of his last three outings and now carries a 6.11 ERA. It gets worse as we dive deeper into the numbers – 6.96 xERA, 5.56 xFIP, .525 xSLG, .396 xwOBA, 20.6% whiff rate, and a 12.5% barrel rate. Unfortunately for Brito, the Rangers average 6.2 runs per game and carry the fifth-highest OPS (.783) against right-handed pitching alongside a .184 ISO and 120 wRC+.
Based on existing results, injuries, and regression metrics, this matchup favors the Rangers. I predict a decisive victory in this spot.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 Run Line (+140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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