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We have another lucrative Tuesday slate today after a very profitable one on Monday. Today we have 26 teams in action, with games starting at 6:10 ET. We will talk about two first five-inning bets with which we will focus on attacking starting pitchers. I have found early this season eliminating bullpens and concentrating on starting pitching matchups has been my most profitable way to bet. It's a much easier way to eliminate bullpen mistakes and late-inning rallies.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -170
DET: Spencer Turnbull | MIL: Eric Lauer
The Brew Crew square off today for game two of their series against the Tigers after dropping the opener 4-2. This Milwaukee team is a different team against right-hand pitching than left-hand pitching. Milwaukee has scored the fourth most runs against right-hand pitching and owns a top-ten ISO and wOBA against the split. In comparison, against left-hand pitching, they have scored the third least runs and are second worst in ISO and wOBA. They will face a righty struggling to start the season in Spencer Turnbull.
Turnbull has a 7.85 ERA and a 40.0% hard-hit rate to start the season. As stated above, this is one of the best teams in the big leagues against right-hand pitching and has several lefties who match up very well with Turnbull's pitch mix. The Tigers will face a lefty in Eric Lauer, who has been pretty average to start the year, posting a 4.30 ERA. The difference here is the Tigers are dead last in runs scored, ISO, and wOBA against left-hand pitching in 2023. This is about as opposite of a matchup as you can get, and I want to eliminate the bullpens and attack this starting pitching mismatch.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -0.5, 1st five innings (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -210
CWS: Mike Clevinger| TOR: Jose Berrios
The Toronto Blue Jays get one of the most significant mismatches of the slate facing Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has been extremely lucky to open up 2023. He has a 3.26 ERA so far through four starts this season. That said, he has a 5.93 xFIP and a 5.67 SIERA, both tops for the pitchers toeing the rubber today. He has a 12.6% BB and a 1.50 WHIP. Clevinger has some serious negative regression on the doorstep, and I will bet it will hit him tonight against one of the league's best offenses.
There are a couple of different ways we can attack this. First and foremost, log onto DraftKings or FanDuel and stack them up in DFS. But this is a betting article, so we will focus on it from that angle. We could take a Blue Jays run total or even bet them -1.5, and I would be fine with both. But I will focus on their first five-inning run total, as the number at 2.5 seems achievable against Clevinger, and we can eliminate Jose Berrios or any noise in the late innings.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays OVER 2.5 runs first five innings (-145) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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