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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, April 24, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 13-9-0 (+2.47 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN -108
TEX: Nathan Eovaldi | CIN: Nick Lodolo
We had a rough day yesterday, losing both of our NRFIs. We won't be looking at those today, but I do have a pair of first five inning plays. We'll start out in Cincinnati for our first play of the day.
The Rangers will be sending Nathan Eovaldi to the mound. Eovaldi (2-2, 5.40 ERA) has gotten off to a slow start to this season. He did toss six innings of two-run ball against the Royals last week, and I'm expecting him to trend upward today. He projects to a 3.46 xFIP in this one against a Reds lineup that has a .306 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against right-handers this season, both toward the bottom of the league.
On the other hand, the Reds will be sending Nick Lodolo to the mound. Lodolo got roughed up in his last start, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings against the Rays on Tuesday. My model projects him to bounce back tonight though, projecting him to a 3.49 xFIP in this one against a Rangers lineup that projects to a .290 wOBA and ranks 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season (79).
We'll be looking at the under 4.5 runs here for the first five innings, which we can get at -110 on FanDuel.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -162
DET: Matthew Boyd | MIL: Colin Rea
We'll head out to Milwaukee for our second play on Monday, this time looking at an F5 moneyline.
The Tigers will send Matthew Boyd (0-1, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. Boyd has been fine through his first three starts. He's allowed two, two, and three earned runs across his first three starts, respectively. He hasn't made it into the sixth in any of them and only threw five complete once, on Tuesday against the Guardians. He projects to a 4.41 xFIP today despite the Brewers' offense struggling against southpaws to this point, ranking 29th in both wOBA (.269) and wRC+ (65).
The Brewers will send Colin Rea to the mound. Rea (0-0, 4.22 ERA) followed up his impressive first start against San Diego, a 5.2 inning, four earned run performance, with a not-so-good outing. He threw five innings against the Mariners last Tuesday, allowing four earned on five hits and two walks. Fortunately for him, he gets a strong bounce-back opportunity against a Tigers offense that ranks 29th in wOBA (.272) and 28th in wRC+ (72).
Despite the Brewers' struggles against lefties, I'll back them in the first five innings here, which we can get on FanDuel for -144.
Pick: Brewers F5 Moneyline, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.02 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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