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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into the next week.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 21, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 4-9-1 (-5.51 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate. As the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN -122
DET: Casey Mize | MIN: Louie Varland
I'll start my Sunday off out in Minnesota for the rubber match of the Twins/Tigers weekend series.
The Tigers will send Casey Mize (0-0, 4.11 ERA) to the mound. The former top prospect for the Tigers has had a fine start to his 2023 campaign, most recently allowing two earned across six innings of work against the defending World Champion Texas Rangers on Tuesday. He projects to a respectable 3.92 xFIP this afternoon, against a Twins lineup that has a significant advantage in the wOBA department today, coming in at .347.
Mize will take on Twins starter Louie Varland (0-3, 8.36 ERA). Varland has had a tough go of things in 2024, allowing six runs in consecutive starts against the Orioles and Dodgers. While the Tigers' lineup has proven to be solid this season, I can't say they're on the same level as the two previously mentioned teams. Varland projects some serious positive regression today, with a 3.15 xFIP. The Tigers, conversely, project to a .279 xFIP.
Louie Varland's 2Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/YMxRvve22j
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 1, 2023
I'll be betting on that positive regression from Varland this afternoon, taking a stab at the Twins F5 money line, which we can get at -128 on FanDuel.
Pick: Twins F5 Money Line (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.78 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -250
NYM: Adrian Houser | LAD: Tyler Glasnow
I'll head out to the City of Angels for my second play of the day, running back the Dodgers after they had let us down on Friday, taking the loss to Sean Manaea and the Mets.
This time for New York, it'll be Adrian Houser (0-1, 4.70 ERA) to the mound. Houser was good in his last start against the Pirates on Monday, allowing just two earned despite walking five across 5.1 innings. He'll have a tougher go of things against the Dodgers tonight, projecting to a 4.39 xFIP against this Dodgers lineup that projects a .403 wOBA.
Conversely, the Dodgers will send Tyler Glasnow (3-1, 3.72 ERA) to the mound. Glasnow had his worst outing of the season on Monday against the Nationals of all teams, allowing six earned runs on eight hits across five innings. He should be looking for a bounce-back outing this afternoon, and my model projects the same. He projects a very impressive 2.33 xFIP against this Mets lineup, who projects a .247 team wOBA in this one.
I'll back the Dodgers throughout the entire game here, as I believe they also have the bullpen advantage. We can get their run line at -125 on DraftKings, and I'll be more than happy to run with it.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-125), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.8 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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