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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into the weekend.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, April 19, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 3-8-1 (-5.11 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate. As the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Cubs
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CHC -175
MIA: A.J. Puk | CHC: Jameson Taillon
We took one of two on Sunday, pushing on our F5 play and winning on our Rangers team total. I'll back two teams in the first five innings on Friday, starting with the early game in Chicago.
The Marlins will send A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) to the mound. Puk had a fine last start against the Yankees, but the experience of making him a starter has been a rocky one to this point. He projects to a 4.42 xFIP this afternoon, and the Cubs will look to take advantage, as they bring in a projected .372 wOBA.
Conversely, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound for his season debut. Taillon didn't have a great season in 2023, pitching to a 4.84 ERA. He projects some serious positive regression, projecting to a 3.49 xFIP. The Marlins project to a respectable .328 wOBA, but I still give the Cubs the advantage here. I'll back their first five money line, which we can get at -166 on FanDuel.
Jameson Taillon, Filthy Back Foot Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/C6lNnRFyZD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 27, 2023
Pick: Cubs F5 Money Line (-166), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.6 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD -200
NYM: Sean Manaea | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
I'll head out to the City of Angels for my second play of the night.
The Mets will send Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.29 ERA) to the mound this evening. Manaea had a strong start to the season but got roughed up in his last start against the Royals, allowing eight runs (six earned) across 3.2 innings. Manaea has a lot of familiarity with the Dodgers, having pitched for the Padres and Giants for the last two years, respectively. He projects a respectable 3.58 xFIP in this one, while the Dodgers project a .343 wOBA against the lefty.
Conversely, the Dodgers will send rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-1, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. It's been an up-and-down start to Yamamoto's MLB career, as he hasn't gone more than five innings in any of his four starts. He's shut his opponents out in two of those starts, and allowed five and three runs in the other two, respectively. Regardless, he projects a 2.56 xFIP in this one against a Mets lineup that projects a very poor .268 wOBA against him.
I'll back the Dodgers first-five run line here, which we can grab at -148 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-148), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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