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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, April 18, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these article picks, I am 3-5 overall with the articles, up 0.25 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. As I get rolling, then we can increase how many units to bet per pick. MLB is a high variance sport on a given day, so it's important to be cautious early on.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.0 | Moneyline: WSN -140
ARI: Madison Bumgarner| WSN: Josiah Gray
Both pitchers are off to a great start this season. Madison Bumgarner is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA while Josiah Gray is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA. Despite the surface stats looking good, Bumgarner has a SIERA of 7.30 and Gray has a SIERA of 4.03. Both pitchers have issues with walks as well: Bumgarner has walked six batters in eight innings pitched. Gray has walked five batters in nine innings pitched. In addition, Washington's Bullpen ERA this season is 5.16 (No. 27) and Arizona's Bullpen ERA this season is 4.47 (No. 25).
Offensively, the Washington Nationals have scored 41 runs in their first 10 games (No. 10). Arizona has struggled to get the bats going as they have scored just 21 runs in eight games played.
That said, one thing I notice in the major leagues is if mediocre batters face bad pitchers, they can have some success. Bumgarner's underlying metrics indicate he is in for a bad start and some regression in his productivity. Gray might continue to do what he is currently doing. Both teams have bad bullpens that even if the starters do well, there could be a lot of late runs.
Eight runs are too low for me, and I am taking the over.
Pick: OVER 8 (-115), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -140
MIN: Dylan Bundy| BOS: Rich Hill
We have a day game here on Boston Marathon Day between the Twins and Red Sox. Minnesota has Dylan Bundy on the bump while Boston will send out Rich Hill. Dylan Bundy is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA while Rich Hill is 0-0 with a 6.23 ERA. Bundy pitched that first start with a 5.05 SIERA, he has a career 4.27 SIERA. Hill's underlying SIERA was 4.43 while he has a career 3.96 SIERA. Minnesota's bullpen ERA is 5.35 (No. 29), while Boston's is 2.95 (No. 8).
Offensively, Boston is No. 19 in runs scored while Minnesota is No. 25. There is just too much firepower in these offenses to have this low scoring in the early going.
Similar to the previous game I wrote up, this game has some over potential. Bundy will allow some runs at some point. Hill is 42-years-old and has to start slowing down at some point. Even if the scoring is relatively low early, Minnesota's bullpen has not performed and is liable to give up runs even if Bundy has a decent start.
Pick: OVER 9 Runs (-105), Pointsbet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SDP -165
CIN: Nick Lodolo | SDP: Sean Manaea
What I love about betting MLB sides is that the games are so high variance that there usually is an underdog or two that have a price that I like. And Cincinnati is that team for today. Sean Manaea is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA. Nick Lodolo, on the other hand, is 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA. That difference right there is why the Padres are such a big favorite here. Manaea has a career 4.11 SIERA while Lodolo is someone who protected out at the beginning of the year to have a 4.00 ERA or so. Digging into other stats such as strikeout rate, both guys projected around 24% at the start of the year too. Long story short is that the skills of these pitchers are closer than they appear in their surface stats. They are even both lefties! It comes down to whether Lodolo just had a bad start or if he isn't ready for Major League Baseball.
San Diego's bullpen ERA is 4.20 (No. 22) while Cincinnati's is 4.37 (No. 23).
I am willing to take a good price on Cincinnati to see if Lodolo can bounce back or not. These teams are somewhat even on paper and taking +155 on a matchup you believe in somewhat even is a good price.
Pick: Cincinnati Moneyline (+155), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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