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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, April 17, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 10-6-0 (+3.19 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS +130
LAA: Shohei Ohtani | BOS: Brayan Bello
I'll start the week off in Boston as we have a very early matinee game this morning with Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Angels in town.
Ohtani (2-0, 0.47 ERA) has been dominant in his first three starts of the season and will take the ball again today. He'll face a Red Sox lineup that's been about mediocre against right-handed pitchers this season, with a .320 wOBA and 95 wRC+. They project to a .309 wOBA and 29.4% hard contact rate today and Ohtani projects to an impressive 2.47 xFIP in this matchup.
On the other side, Brayan Bello will be making his season debut for Boston. Bello went 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 11 starts for the Sox last season and is making his first start of the year after dealing with some elbow inflammation. I can't imagine that Boston will want to stretch him super deep into tonight's game, so we'll likely see some bullpen arms early and often.
I'll keep it nice and simple here and grab the Angels on the F5 moneyline. They have a significant matchup advantage here, and the game is early enough that I don't think we'll have to worry about any "getaway day blues" from the Halos.
Pick: Angels F5 Moneyline (-155) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.55 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA +122
MIL: Corbin Burnes | SEA: Chris Flexen
We'll head out west to Seattle for our second play of the day.
The visiting Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the mound. Burnes (1-1, 5.19 ERA) is having a relatively tough start to his season but is coming off a gem in Arizona where he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits while striking out eight. Similar to Burnes, the Mariners' offense has gotten off to a slow start, coming into this one with a .315 wOBA and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The Mariners will be sending Chris Flexen to the mound. While Burnes has started off relatively poorly, Flexen (0-2, 8.74 ERA) has gotten off to a worse start, most recently allowing 10 hits and eight earned runs to the Cubs in just 2.1 innings last Tuesday. He projects to a 5.04 xFIP in this start against a Brewers offense that comes into this one with a team wOBA of .361 and wRC+ of 121 against right-handed pitching.
With the Brewers' bullpen struggling this season (1.23 WHIP, 4.41 FIP, 4.76 xFIP), we'll keep it simple and stick to the F5 moneyline here as well. The odds on both the F5 and full game moneylines are identical (-144), which we'll grab on FanDuel.
Pick: Brewers F5 Moneyline, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.44 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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