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Happy Sunday RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 16, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 9-5-0 (+3.54 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: WSH +205
CLE: Shane Bieber | WSH: Patrick Corbin
I'll start off today in D.C., as it's National Fade Patrick Corbin Day once again, as the Guardians and Nationals finish up their series with some matinee action.
The Guardians will be sending Shane Bieber (1-0, 2.37 ERA) to the mound this season. Bieber has pitched very well this season, but does have a WHIP of just under one. Fortunately for him, though, he faces a Nationals lineup that has just a .259 wOBA and 54 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season. Bieber projects to a 2.98 xFIP this afternoon, and the Nats project to a .284 wOBA.
On the other hand, the Nationals will be sending the one, the only, Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin (1-2, 7.71 ERA), has allowed at least four runs in each of his three starts this season, despite just two of them being earned in his Opening Day start. Nevertheless, he projects to a 4.21 xFIP today against a Guardians lineup that projects to a .342 wOBA and 35.99% hard contact rate in this one.
We're getting a decent line on DraftKings for Cleveland at -135, which I think is more than fair considering the wide gap in starting pitching. Back Cleveland to cover today.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (-135) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.35 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -134
ARI: Zac Gallen | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
We'll head down to Miami for our second play of the day, this time a first inning under.
The visiting Diamondbacks will send righty Zac Gallen (1-1, 4.58 ERA) to the mound. Gallen has been good in the first inning this season, going 2-0 so far on the road and 3-0 overall. He'll take on a Marlins lineup that's scored in just two of eight first innings at home and in just three of 14 overall.
The aforementioned Marlins will be sending reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (1-1, 5.79 ERA) to the mound. Alcantara got roughed up in his last start against the Phillies, allowing nine earned runs across four innings. He didn't allow a first-inning run, though, and hasn't in any of his three starts. The DBacks have scored in six of 14 first innings on the young season, but I don't expect Sandy's troubles from Monday night to carry over into this start.
As expected, the NRFI is juiced no matter which book you're looking at. We'll grab it on FanDuel though, where we can get it at -146.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.46 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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