RADIO
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a decent day yesterday, finishing 1-1. As I mentioned the other day, I'm feeling a little bit more comfortable now in my numbers now that the season has started along, however, I'm always continuing to make tweaks in hopes of creating the most accurate projections. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Saturday, April 16, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 6-5-1, -1.05 units
- Sides: 4-3, -0.27 units
- Totals: 2-2-1, -0.78 units
- Notes: Despite the Phillies waiting to score until the eighth inning, we were able to cash the over there. The Astros seemingly didn't show up last night, getting thrashed in Seattle. Nothing we can do about that, as we had a lot of data backing the 'Stros last night. Regardless, onto today.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYM -168
ARI: Zac Gallen | NYM: Carlos Carrasco
I'll start today's slate off with the first game of the day up at Citi Field in New York. I'm looking at the over in this one, despite the potential upside of both of these starters. Zac Gallen makes his season debut in this one, coming off a 2021 season where he logged a 4.30 ERA and 3.96 xFIP. Knowing Gallen, things can either go very well or very poorly, and I can't imagine he'll go too deep in this one as he had this start pushed back due to a thumb issue. While the Diamondbacks' bullpen has seemingly taken a step forward under new pitching coach Brent Strom, the Mets have plenty of offensive firepower to make things happen.
On the other side of the field, Carlos Carrasco takes the ball for New York. Carrasco had a solid first outing, allowing one earned on just two hits in 5.2 innings. Carrasco showed optimism following a 2021 season where logged a 6.04 ERA and 4.32 xFIP, but until he proves it over time I don't have a problem attacking him. Carrasco is slightly worse in day games over the course of his career, including a 16.20 ERA in two day-game starts last season.
There is a little bit of juice on the over here, but I'm willing to take it. At just 7.5, my model gives this game a 59.45% chance of going over, with the game finishing at 9.06 runs. These teams combined for 13 runs in their matchup yesterday, and I think we're due for more of the same as the Mets have been scoring at will here early on in the season. I don't think we'll need much for Arizona, so I do think there's solid value here.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-122) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CLE +100
SF: Anthony DeSclafani | CLE: Cal Quantrill
A popular team in these articles this season, I'll be on the Giants again today. Like the Astros, the Giants have seemingly been underpriced by sportsbooks thus far into the season. However, unlike the Astros, the Giants have been winning of late. They'll send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound today, after a shaky first start where he allowed two runs on eight hits against Miami in 3.2 innings of work. I think he bounces back today against a Guardians lineup that has been hot to start the year, was cooled down by Carlos Rodon last night.
Cal Quantrill takes the mound for Cleveland today, after tossing five innings allowing two earned runs in his season debut last Sunday. Quantrill carried an impressive ERA last year of just 2.89, but an xFIP of 4.43 indicates he was a bit lucky and should be due for regression. We know the Giants don't score a ton of runs, but take advantage of mistakes and pick their spots in order to get the job done.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros at just -118 this afternoon, offering a 54.13% implied chance of winning. My model gives the Giants a 57.35% chance of winning, offering us a decent EV margin at +3.22%. My projected final score sits at 4.72 to 4.06 for San Francisco, and I can see them stacking a few runs early and winning in a battle of the bullpens. I'll ride the hot arms of the Giants and take the value while taking advantage of the implied value we have here.
Pick: San Francisco Giants Money Line (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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