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Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's mid-April, and we are already halfway through the first month of the MLB season. We'll be in the dog days of summer with extremely sharp baseball betting lines before we know it, so let's take advantage while we can!
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My name is Tommy Bell, and I'm thrilled to be back for another season with the MLB Betting Crew. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, April 15, 2024.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: Red Sox -125
CLE: Xzavion Curry | BOS: Kutter Crawford
Game Time: 11:10 am ET
What better way to celebrate Patriots' Day than to place a nice wager on some lunchtime baseball?!
Boston welcomes the Guardians to town for their annual marathon matinee, and the spot could not set up better for the Red Sox. Cleveland was forced to play a doubleheader on Saturday and then used their bullpen again heavily in extra innings on Sunday. Pair that with the call-up of an average right-handed arm in Xzavion Curry, and you have a very questionable situation for the Guardians' pitching staff from start to finish.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox were able to ride just three pitchers on Sunday, leaving most of their bullpen fully available to close out a victory on Monday afternoon. Not to mention Kutter Crawford has been strong to start 2024, as he's suppressed line drives and hard contact at impressive rates en route to a 0.57 ERA and 10.34 K/9 through three starts.
Boston can ride its impressive table-setter in Jarren Duran as well as the hottest hitter in baseball in Tyler O'Neill to an early lead against the sleepy Guardians, and the bullpen mismatch should be enough to bring home the win for the Red Sox. Let's win a Patriots' Day bet before 2:00 pm EST. That's about as American as it gets!
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: Rays -155
LAA: Patrick Sandoval | TB: Zach Eflin
Game Time: 6:50 pm ET
We saw this exact matchup in Los Angeles last week, and both pitchers were hit... HARD.
Patrick Sandoval allowed a 26.7% line drive rate with a 33.3% hard-hit rate on his way to four earned runs on six hits and three walks in five innings. Meanwhile, Zach Eflin allowed a 21.1% line drive rate with a 42.1% hard-hit rate en route to five earned runs on nine hits over five innings, including one homer.
Typically, when offenses get to see a pitcher twice in quick succession like this, the hitters get a minor advantage. Especially with the technology MLB teams have at their disposal now, it's safe to say a hitter can improve on their approach to a familiar pitcher more than the other way around. Yet, we have a surprisingly low line of eight runs here as an Over/Under.
Neither bullpen has been great either, as the Angels rank 20th in bullpen xFIP, while the Rays rank dead last! There are plenty of strong hitters on both sides of these lineups to get the job done, and this feels like a 5-4 game at the very least. Take advantage of a generous total in a unique familiarity spot in Tropicana Field on Monday night.
Pick: Angels/Rays Over 8 (-115), DraftKings Sportsbook.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and find me on X for all things baseball banter!
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