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Happy Friday RotoBallers, the weekend is just about here! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, April 14, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 7-5-0 (+1.54 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CIN +126
PHI: Taijuan Walker | CIN: Connor Overton
We'll see a rematch between these two starters from Sunday, where we, unfortunately, took the loss on the NRFI. We'll be looking at a different edge here.
The visiting Phillies will send Taijuan Walker (0-1, 6.00 ERA) to the mound for his third start of the season. Walker has been the antithesis to what he usually has been in his career. When the Phillies signed him, they expected him to be a strike-throwing innings eater, and that certainly isn't what they've gotten out of him so far. Nevertheless, he projects to a 3.88 xFIP today against a Reds projected lineup that has a projected .273 wOBA and 31.48% strikeout rate in this one.
The Reds will be sending Connor Overton (0-0, 10.13 ERA) to the mound. Overton hasn't shown much this season, just recently allowing four earned runs across four innings against the Phillies on Sunday. He projects to a 4.97 xFIP against the Phillies who project to a .306 wOBA and 31.39% hard contact rate here.
The Phillies have started the season off on the wrong foot, and really need to start racking up wins in order to compete in the top-heavy NL. I wouldn't touch their bullpen with a ten-foot pole, so we'll grab them on the first five money line here, which we're getting at -144 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies F5 Money Line (-144) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.44 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Athletics
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: OAK +158
NYM: Kodai Senga | OAK: James Kaprielian
We'll head out west for our second play of the day.
The visiting Mets will send Kodai Senga to the hill in this one. Senga has been excellent across his first two starts, winning both while pitching to a 1.59 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. While I don't necessarily have strong data projections for him yet, my data does project the A's to a .276 wOBA and 27% hard contact rate against the Japanese right-hander today.
Conversely, Oakland will be sending righty James Kaprielian to the mound this evening. Kaprielian hasn't had such a good start to the season, coming into this one 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA on the young campaign. It's hard to say things will look up for Kaprielian tonight, as he projects to a 5.06 xFIP against a Mets lineup that projects to a .344 wOBA in this one.
While it appears that Senga is due for some regression, it's hard to imagine that will come today against Oakland. The full game lines are a bit heavy, but I feel confident in backing the Mets run line in the first five innings tonight, which we're getting at -130 on FanDuel.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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