RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm happy to be back after a fantastic end to last week, nailing both of our bets on Sunday. I'm feeling a little bit more comfortable now in my numbers now that the season has started along, however, I'm always continuing to make tweaks in hopes of creating the most accurate projections. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, April 14, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 5-3, +0.08 units
- Sides: 4-2, +0.73 units
- Totals: 1-1, -0.65 units
- Notes: Great day on Sunday, with both plays cashing with ease. Let's get after it this week!
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PIT -130
WSH: Joan Adon | PIT: JT Brubaker
I'll start off today's slate in Pittsburgh, unfortunately betting against my namesake, JT Brubaker again. Brubaker had a difficult start to 2022, allowing four earned runs in three innings against St. Louis on Opening Day. I try not to overreact to any pitchers' first start of the season, and I do believe that Brubaker improves as the season goes along, despite targeting him today.
Not only did Brubaker have a tough start to 2021, but the Pirates' bullpen also hasn't been much better. They're carrying a 4.58 ERA and 4.16 xFIP into today's matchup, both in the bottom tier in the league. After getting just four innings from starter Zach Thompson in Wednesday's finale, they'll look at Brubaker to eat some innings against Washington.
I'm not picking a side in this game, however, I will be looking at the Nationals team total. As of right now, FanDuel Sportsbook has it listed at 4, with the odds at -118. The Nationals scored at a higher clip on the road in Atlanta than they did in their opening series against the Mets in Nationals Park, and are averaging just under four runs per game. My model has them scoring 5.01 runs in this one, giving us solid value here. Should the number
Pick: Washington Nationals TT o4 (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -116
PHI: Kyle Gibson | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
The Phillies and Marlins head down to South Beach, with each team coming off a series loss. The Marlins dropped both games against the Angels out in Anaheim, while the Phillies dropped two of three to the division-rival Mets. Both teams have playoff hopes, and both teams will want to get their seasons on track if they want to compete with the likes of the Mets and Braves throughout the season. With all of this said, though, I won't be taking a side in this game. I'll be taking everyone's favorite new trendy bet, the NRFI.
Kyle Gibson struggled in the first inning last season, posting a 5.52 ERA in the opening frame in 2021. He had no first-inning issues in his season debut, as he struck out ten in seven innings. Opposing starter Sandy Alcantara didn't have an issue in the opening frame of 2021, yielding just eight runs in 33 first-innings, good for a 2.18 ERA. He also tossed a clean first in his season debut, so let's hope he can continue that trend today.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this NRFI at -115 as I'm typing this, so I do think we're getting some good value here. After scoring first-inning runs in each of their first two games, they've gone four straight games being shut out in the first. Meanwhile, the Marlins have yet to score a run in the first in 2022. While there's always a threat of a "Schwarbomb" or some "Soler power", I think the value is good enough here to take at this cheap price. I won't be surprised if this line moves to -130 or higher as the day goes on.
Pick: PHI @ MIA, NRFI (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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