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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into this weekend.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, April 12, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 2-6-0 (-4.21 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Tigers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DET -125
MIN: Pablo Lopez | DET: Tarik Skubal
We've gotten off to a bit of a slow start to the 2024 season, and I try to hamper expectations, given that it's only April. It doesn't make it any less frustrating, but there's plenty of time to get it going.
We'll start in Detroit as a pair of aces take the hill. Pablo Lopez (1-1, 2.84 ERA) will take the ball for the Twins today. We'll ride the first inning under in this one. Lopez has allowed a first-inning tally in one of two starts this year, however, that could be considered an outlier when you look back to 2023, where he allowed a run in the opening frame just seven times in 22 starts. He'll take on a Tigers lineup that has yet to score in the first at home while scoring three times in eight first innings on the road.
Conversely, the Tigers will send Tarik Skubal to the mound. Skubal, a darling of the online baseball community, has been perfect in the first inning this year (2-0, 1-0 at home). He was also great at Comerica Park last season, allowing a first-inning run in just one of his eight starts at home in 2023. The Twins have put up a crooked number in three of their first ten games, but only one coming on the road.
Tarik Skubal, 85mph Changeup and 99mph Fastball, Overlay pic.twitter.com/QTURgCHW0b
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2024
With the under currently sitting at 7, I expected some juice on the first inning under. Nevertheless, the -162 odds come out to a value of 61.83%, while my model has the first inning under at 64.57%. I'll take that little bit of value and run with it, locking in the NRFI on FanDuel.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-162), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.62 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -166
PIT: Bailey Falter | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
I'll head out to Philly as we look at the "Battle of PA" for the second play of the day. The Phillies took game one of this series on Friday night behind a strong outing by Ranger Suarez and look to take hold of the series tonight, sending another southpaw to the mound.
The Pirates will send a southpaw to the mound in former Phillie Bailey Falter (0-0, 5.40 ERA). Falter was impressive in his last outing, allowing just one hit and one walk across six innings against the Orioles on Sunday. It'll be another test against Philadelphia tonight, who comes into this one with a projected .383 wOBA as a team.
The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez (0-1, 4.82 ERA) to the mound tonight. Sanchez has been better than his numbers show. His velocity has seen a nice bump, and he's been effective in mixing his pitches and leaving hitters off balance. He's projected to positively regress to a 2.84 xFIP tonight against a Pirates lineup that projects a .280 wOBA.
The Phillies have a strong advantage in both the pitching matchup and the lineup side of things. They also have a strong bullpen advantage here, so I'll back their money line, which we can get at -166 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies Money Line (-166), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.6 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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