Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/11/24)

We're set for a Thursday slate that sees the majority of its action in the afternoon, but we're honing on both a matinee clash and one of the evening matchups for today's pair of betting recommendations.

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Without further ado, let's break down our two betting picks for Thursday, April 11. Good luck, RotoBallers!

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TEX -180
OAK: JP Sears | TEX: Jon Gray

The Athletics pulled off the upset on the Rangers in Tuesday's series opener courtesy of a three-HR outlier game from Shea Langeliers, but Texas restored the universe to its proper equilibrium Wednesday with a 6-2 win that saw several of its stars deliver offensively.

Thursday's pitching matchup would appear to be conducive to more success for Texas, considering the way JP Sears has pitched to contact over his first two outings. Sears has given up nine runs on 12 hits, three walks, and two hit batters across 9.1 innings, a sample during which he's recorded two strikeouts. Granted these numbers are bound to normalize over time, as Sears has pitched to a respectable 4.35 ERA over his first two seasons while toiling most of that time with very poor run support.

Nevertheless, he's facing one of the worst AL opponents possible in terms of a chance for a rebound performance. The defending champion Rangers are only 7-5 over the first two weeks of the new season, but Texas is already doing a number on left-handed pitching. The Rangers went into Wednesday's contest having produced a .304 average, .851 OPS, and .378 wOBA against southpaws in a sample of 81 plate appearances.

Rangers starter Jon Gray has also gotten his season off to a rough start by the numbers, but a closer look reveals he was much better in his second start. Gray has been limited to 3.2 innings in both of those outings, but in his most recent, he didn't surrender any earned runs and got the early hook because he was already up to 84 pitches thanks in part to three walks.

The Athletics should present much less of a challenge than his first two opponents (Cubs and Astros), considering Oakland went into Wednesday with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, .195 average, .259 wOBA, and -12.7 wRAA versus righties. Moreover, current A's bats have a collective .100 average and .359 OPS over 47 career encounters versus Gray.

The Rangers moneyline unsurprisingly carries some pretty heavy juice, but combining it with a prop for Marcus Semien, who already has crossed the plate 10 times and boasts a .411 OBP, to score a run in a game Texas has an implied run total of 5.6 is a good way to get a much better price.

Pick: SGP: Rangers moneyline and Marcus Semien to Score a Run (+117, FanDuel Sportsbook)

A big 4th inning courtesy of Marcus Semien and Adolis García 😤#WentAndTookIt pic.twitter.com/6RnT2xHEze

— SportsDay Rangers (@dmn_rangers) April 11, 2024

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL (-115)
BAL: Grayson Rodriguez | BOS: Garrett Whitlock

The Orioles have been excited by Grayson Rodriguez's potential since investing a first-round pick in him during the 2018 First-Year Player Draft. After more than holding his own in his rookie 2023 campaign (23 starts) with a 7-4 record and 4.35 ERA, Rodriguez has looked very much like a future ace taking the next step toward that status over his first two starts.

The right-hander has posted a 2-0 record, 2.19 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP, complementing those impressive numbers with an 11.7 K/9. Admittedly, Rodriguez is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher who also has a 4.27 xERA that's indicative he could be flirting with disaster more than ideal. However, it's worth noting Rodriguez was a more effective pitcher on the road last season with a 4.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 that were appreciably better than his respective 4.59, 1.44, and 8.4 figures in those categories at home.

On the other side, Garrett Whitlock has opened the season in even better form than his opposite number, forging a 1-0 mark alongside an 0.96 ERA and 11.6 K/9 in two starts. The young right-hander hasn't given up a home run, either, and he's held current Orioles bats to a collective .231 average across 55 plate appearances.

Given the talent of the starting pitchers -- plus the fact the O's were averaging a paltry 1.4 runs per first five innings per road game before also being blanked over the first five frames Wednesday -- I'm in the camp of the F5 Under, even with the talented hitters on either side.

Pick: Under 4.5 total runs - First Five innings (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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