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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are kicking off the first full week of the major league baseball season! I am hoping you have enjoyed the games thus far and we are going to look to have a great week of action this coming week.
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, April 11, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
This is my first article this season so I don't have any results to share. With MLB, my recommendation is to start slow and start small. I believe we have 179 days in the MLB season this year and we just got through the first four games. It is a marathon, not a sprint! I will be writing these articles Monday-Wednesdays and will update my progress in this section once I get some picks logged.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL -142
MIL: Adrian Houser| BAL: Bruce Zimmerman
To start us off for today, we have this matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles. For the Brewers, Adrian Houser starts. He was 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA. The underlying metrics tell a different story as Houser's SIERA was 4.73 and his xFIP was 4.31. Fortunately for Milwaukee fans, Bruce Zimmerman is going on the other side. Zimmerman was 4-5 last year with a 5.04 ERA in 13 games started. His SIERA was 4.59 and xFIP was 4.44.
One of the key edges in this game will be the bats. Zimmerman is an LHP, and several Brewers do very well against left-handed pitching. Willy Adames has a .210 ISO and 0.330 wOBA against LHP the last two seasons. Andrew McCutchen has a .340 ISO and .430 wOBA against LHP the last two seasons as well. Hunter Renfroe has a .230 ISO and .370 wOBA against LHP the last two seasons too.
For the Orioles, Cedric Mullins (.250 ISO, .390 wOBA), Ryan Mountcastle (.200 ISO, .300 wOBA), and Anthony Santander (.240 ISO, .320 wOBA) have shown some pop against RHP the last two seasons too. When I compare the two lineups, the Brewers are deeper than the Orioles so they get the edge with bats.
Even if we call the starting pitching between Milwaukee and Baltimore even, Milwaukee has an edge with their bats against LHP compared to Baltimore vs. RHP. Additionally, Milwaukee has the edge with the bullpen in this one. Minus 142 feels too low of odds and I jumped on this bet as soon as I saw it posted as I believe the odds will get more juiced closer to the first pitch.
Pick: MIL Moneyline (-142), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYY -110
TOR: Alek Manoah | NYY: Jameson Taillon
This will be a fun game to keep an eye on tonight. Alek Manoah is a young up-and-coming phenom while Taillon was once that up-and-coming phenom that has been through a lot health-wise. Last year, Manoah went 9-2 in 20 starts with a 3.22 ERA, a, 3.88 SIERA, and 4.17 xFIP. Jameson Taillon last year went 8-6 in 29 starts with a 4.30 ERA, a 4.33 SIERA, and a 4.69 xFIP.
Both lineups are stacked, generally, 1-7 for Toronto can take you deep any time and the same can be said for maybe six of the 1-7 for the Yankees can too. So naturally, we are going to take the over here right?
Nope. Beyond both pitchers on the mound being quality, the weather should play a big factor in keeping the scoring low too. At first pitch (7:05 pm Eastern), the weather is forecasted to be 51 degrees, dropping to 49 degrees and rainy by 9 PM local time. I bet the under here as early-season baseball can be heavily impacted by the weather.
Pick: UNDER 9.0 Runs (+100), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN -122
SEA: Chris Flexen| MIN: Dylan Bundy
To wrap up the picks, we are going to head to Minnesota. Chris Flexen last year went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 4.70 SIERA, and a 4.56 xFIP, while Dylan Bundy was 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA last year, a 4.56 SIERA, and a 4.66 xFIP.
As far as lineups go, both teams have some pop. The Twins do have power throughout the lineup (Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Sano, and Kepler are all threats to go deep) but Flexen did a good job of keeping home runs in check with just a 0.95 HR/9. Dylan Bundy was a mess last year. His metrics look not as bad, but he still allowed 1.99 HR/9.
The bottom line is I am in wait-and-see mode with Bundy. Both teams have some pop, but I trust Flexen more than Bundy. I also trust Seattle's bullpen more than Minnesota's. I was surprised to see Minnesota favored and will take Seattle in this one as they are an underdog with a good chance to win.
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (+110), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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