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Happy Sunday, and happy Easter, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we wrap up the holiday weekend.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, March 31, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 1-1-0 (-0.09 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -148
LAA: Reid Detmers | BAL: Tyler Wells
I'll start things out in Baltimore as the Orioles look to complete their sweep of the Angels.
Los Angeles will try to stop things by sending Reid Detmers to the mound. Detmers had a fine 2023, with a 4.48 ERA and 4.27 xFIP. It'll be a tough ask to have some success against an Orioles lineup that has come out scorching hot this season, scoring 24 runs in their first two games. My model projects to this accordingly, as it projects Detmers to show regression to his 2023 xFIP (4.33), while the Orioles project to positively regress in terms of wOBA (.402).
It'll be Tyler Wells toeing the rubber for the Orioles today. The 29-year-old had a respectable 3.64 ERA across 20 starts in 2023, though a poor 4.63 xFIP overshadowed that. Nevertheless, Wells's projected xFIP number is significantly lower today (3.96) against an Angels lineup that does not offer much firepower besides Mike Trout. The Halos project to just a measly .249 wOBA against Wells today.
Baltimore also carries the bullpen advantage in this one. We're getting a much better number on FanDuel than on other sites, so I'll grab their money line at -148.
Pick: Orioles Money Line (-148), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Mets
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYM -134
MIL: Colin Rea | NYM: Tylor Megill
I'll head just a bit north to the Big Apple where things have gotten a bit chippy over the last few days. Let's take a peek at how I believe the finale of this Brewers/Mets series is bound to go.
The Brewers will send Colin Rea to the mound this afternoon. Rea, who made 22 starts in 2023, gathered a solid season where he logged a 4.55 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. He does project to regress on that number today, bringing in a projected 3.91 xFIP. However, it'll be a tough ask against a Mets team that not only wants "revenge", but also wants to avoid the sweep. They bring in a projected .340 wOBA into this one, which comes in 0.025 points higher than their 2023 number.
Speaking of the Mets, they'll send Tylor Megill to the mound for today's matchup. Megill had a poor 2023 campaign, logging a 4.70 ERA and 4.92 xFIP. Megill projects to move positively regarding xFIP, bringing in a projected 3.68 number. Most of this is due to the Brewers projecting to just a .282 wOBA.
While I bet on the O's to complete their sweep, I'll back the Mets to avoid their sweep. We can get them at -134 on FanDuel, so I'll grab that and run with it.
Pick: Mets Money Line (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.91 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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