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Happy Friday, and welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into the holiday weekend.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, March 29, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 0-0-0 (+0 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB -120
TOR: Chris Bassitt | TB: Aaron Civale
I'll start my 2024 season in these articles with an under. I leaned the under in this game yesterday but ended up laying off, and it worked out as these teams combined for ten runs on Thursday afternoon, with Toronto doing most of the leg work, scoring eight runs alone.
Today, though, Toronto will send Chris Bassitt to the mound. Bassitt had a relatively strong 2023 campaign and is back for another season north of the border. My model has Bassitt projecting to positively regress on his 2023 SIERA and strikeout rate today, projecting to a 3.61 SIERA and 25.47% strikeout rate. He'll take on a Rays lineup that always seems to find a way but projects to just a .321 wOBA in this one.
Chris Bassitt, Wicked 92mph Front Door Two Seamer. 🤢
19 Inches of Run. pic.twitter.com/VUAkcCLmWs
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 24, 2024
Bassitt will take on the 2023 mid-season acquisition Aaron Civale. Civale was an outlier in that he saw his ERA rise after being acquired by Tampa Bay, posting a 5.36 ERA in 45.1 innings after logging a 2.34 ERA across 77 innings in Cleveland. Nevertheless, he projects to just a 3.33 SIERA today against a Blue Jays lineup that projects to just a .306 wOBA today.
While Toronto's bullpen came into this campaign banged up, with Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson starting the year on IL, I still trust both units to get the job done in the late innings. With all of this said, we're getting strong value on the under here, which I'll grab at 8 (-112) on DraftKings.
Pick: Under 8 (-112), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.89 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -225
STL: Zack Thompson | LAD: Bobby Miller
I'll head west and take a look at everyone's pre-season darling, the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they take on Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals in what will be their fourth game of the season.
The visiting Cardinals will send southpaw Zack Thompson to the mound today. Thompson made nine starts (22 appearances) for St. Louis in 2023, pitching to a 4.48 ERA and 4.38 SIERA. Unfortunately for him, his first start of the 2024 campaign comes against a strong Dodgers offense, and with that, he projects to regress to a 4.51 SIERA while the Dodgers project to a .351 wOBA off of the lefty.
Conversely, the Dodgers will send righty Bobby Miller to the mound. Miller had a strong rookie season in 2023, going 11-4 and pitching to a 3.76 ERA and 3.70 SIERA. He projects to positively regress down to a 3.16 SIERA today. While the top of the Cardinals lineup features strong bats in Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado, the rest of their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. The Dodgers also have the bullpen advantage here. I'll back them on the run line, which we can get at -110 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.91 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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