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The long-awaited arrival of Opening Day is upon us, and even though we have a couple of rainouts already on record, we still have no shortage of games to choose from when looking for advantageous betting opportunities. For this first full day of the 2024 MLB season, we'll look to identify value in both an afternoon and a late night NL matchup.
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We'll look to get off to a strong start in 2024 with today's bets, so let's dig into my recommendations for March 28, 2024!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals at Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD (-225)
STL: Miles Mikolas | LAD: Tyler Glasnow
It's technically not Opening Day for the Dodgers, who split the two-game Seoul Series with the Padres last week. Los Angeles now gets a Cardinals team that underachieved significantly last season for its home-opening series. The Blue Crew naturally has no shortage of attention on it, given the offseason spending spree highlighted by the acquisition of Shohei Ohtani.
One of those new arrivals, the talented but oft-injured Tyler Glasnow, will take the hill for the home squad in his regular-season team debut after impressing with a solid five-inning effort against the Padres in the opening series in South Korea. Glasnow did allow a pair of earned runs with the help of four walks, but control historically hasn't been an issue for the hard-throwing right-hander.
Glasnow also put together a stellar body of work during Cactus League play (1-0, 0.90 ERA, 14:3 K:BB) and recorded a career-high 10 wins last season in Tampa Bay. He faces a Cardinals squad that has a large array of incumbents throughout its lineup and that finished last season with a .220 average, .308 OBP, 24.3 percent strikeout rate, .299 wOBA, and -6.7 wRAA versus righties on the road over the last month of the campaign.
Tyler Glasnow is ready for the #SeoulSeries!
He threw 5.1 no-hit innings and struck out 8! #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/N1KL8JLn9s
— MLB (@MLB) March 12, 2024
Glasnow is also helped by the fact that opposing starter Miles Mikolas has had his share of troubles against current Dodgers bats, allowing them a collective .268 average and .733 OPS in 103 career encounters. He also posted just a 5.2 K/9 across 102.1 road frames last season and is facing a Los Angeles team that finished the regular season with a .272 average and .350 wOBA against righties at home over the final two months.
Three of the Dodgers' four wins last season against the Cardinals were by three runs or more, and they have a lineup that naturally can score as many runs as any in baseball. Considering they're also at home, I'll take the solid odds on a run line wager.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies at Diamondbacks
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ARI (-230)
COL: Kyle Freeland | ARI: Zac Gallen
This is a classic NL West rivalry to kick off the season, one the Diamondbacks dominated a year ago. Arizona took 10 of 13 games in 2023 from Colorado, which, like the Cardinals, returned a large contingent of the same players that produced a losing season. The two starting pitchers are also incumbents, and Arizona clearly has the advantage on paper.
Gallen put together an impressive 2023 season that included a career-high 17 wins and 220 strikeouts. Gallen also blanked the Rockies over six innings while recording seven strikeouts in his one encounter with them last season, and he produced a 10.6 K/9 across 102 home innings. He now gets to open what could be another Cy Young-contending campaign against a team that wrapped up the 2023 season with an MLB-high 30.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last two months.
Meanwhile, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland could play a part in this bet cashing from the Diamondbacks' moneyline aspect. The left-hander posted a 2-9 record, 5.13 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.8 HR/9 across 73.2 road innings last season. Freeland also gave up five earned runs on five hits, including three homers, over 5.2 innings in one of his two Chase Field starts last season. He's surrendered a collective .314 average and .943 OPS to current D-Backs hitters in 157 career encounters.
With Arizona a heavy moneyline favorite and Gallen having recorded at least seven Ks in 16 of 34 starts last season -- including in 10 of his home turns -- I like the idea of swinging for the fences on Day 1 and rolling with a same-game parlay.
Pick: SGP: Diamondbacks moneyline and Gallen Over 6.5 strikeouts (+153) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers!
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