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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 11/02/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday RotoBallers, it's World Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, November 2nd, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 16-6-4 (+5.93 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Phillies
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -110
HOU: Cristian Javier | PHI: Aaron Nola
We unfortunately took the loss on our play yesterday, the first inning under, as Bryce Harper did what Bryce Harper does and sent a Lance McCullers Jr. slider about 20 seats back in the right-field stands. However, I think the first-inning under is in just as good of a spot tonight, so we'll run it back.
The visiting Astros will send Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.54 ERA) to the mound tonight. Javier did not face the Phillies this season but was pretty darn good in the first inning. He allowed a first-inning run in just two of 13 starts on the road, and in just six of 25 starts overall. As a Phillies fan, I'm certainly more concerned about Javier on the mound than I was about McCullers yesterday.
Conversely, the Phillies will send Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. I would be remiss if I didn't say that Nola was lucky to escape Game 1 of this series without the loss, surrendering five earned runs across 4.1 innings. It's important to note that he didn't surrender a first-inning run in that start or any of his three previous starts in the postseason to this point. He's allowed a first-inning run in just four of 35 starts overall now and just twice in 17 starts at "The Bank."
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -128. While that number is a bit higher than yesterday's, I still find it to be a good value. The Phillies have been tearing the cover off the baseball at home this postseason, but I do think Javier has good enough stuff to keep the bats quiet, at least in the first inning. My model gives the first inning under a 58.78% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -143. I hope Nola is able to pick up where he left off back in the NLDS, and the Phillies can take a commanding 3-1 lead.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Tuesday!
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