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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, October 8, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 1-1 (-0.17 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Blue Jays
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TOR -162
SEA: Robbie Ray | TOR: Kevin Gausman
We finished yesterday 1-1, and of course, I was right in the article regarding that the Mets will always screw things up. As a Phillies fan, I can’t say I didn’t enjoy watching the collapse in real-time, I wasn’t a huge fan of losing money on it. Nevertheless, we’re back at it today.
The visiting Mariners will look to end Toronto’s season this afternoon, sending Robbie Ray (12-12 3.71 ERA) to the mound. While Ray did have a very good start against his former club back on July 9, allowing one run across six innings, I can’t project he’ll do the same today. My model projects Ray to a 3.72 xFIP, 43.64% hard contact rate, and .693 wOBA + ISO against.
The Blue Jays conversely will try to keep their season alive by sending Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Gausman took the loss in his lone start against the M’s this season, allowing just two runs across seven innings. I project a similar performance, this time with a win though, with a projected 2.81 xFIP, 30.25% hard contact rate, and .356 wOBA + ISO against.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Blue Jays' money line at -162, which is a bit steep for my liking considering I still give the Mariners the bullpen advantage here. I’ll opt for the first five money line instead, which FanDuel has at -150. I consider the two starters closer to even, but I’ll lean with the fact my model favors the Jays here and I figure that the Rogers Centre will be rocking with the season on the line.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 Money Line (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Cardinals
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: STL +104
PHI: Aaron Nola | STL: Miles Mikolas
I’ll take a look at the Phillies/Cardinals series once again for the second play of the day. As mentioned previously, being a Phillies fan yesterday was a pretty great day for me. I’ll be backing the Phightins to put things away this evening.
The Phillies will be sending Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. Nola had one of the worst starts of his 2022 campaign in St. Louis back on June 11, allowing five earned runs across seven innings of work. I’ll look for him to bounce back tonight with my model projecting him to a 2.88 xFIP, 27.34% hard contact rate against, and .278 wOBA + ISO against. Nola sinker/curveball combo is one that the Cardinals struggle against, and we’ll look for Nola to carve through their lineup today.
The Cardinals will be sending Miles Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA) to the mound. Mikolas was on the other side of that June 11 Phillies loss, tossing 7.1 innings of one-run ball. This came ten days after he made a not-so-good start against Philly, allowing four runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of work. My model projects Mikolas to a 3.80 xFIP, 30.53% hard contact rate allowed, and .436 wOBA + ISO allowed.
From an objective standpoint, that ninth-inning collapse by St. Louis seemed to metaphorically “rip the heart out” of them. With Ryan Helsley most likely done for the rest of the series, I consider the bullpen matchup rather even. While FanDuel Sportsbook has the Phillies at -122, my model gives them a 56.76% chance of winning, good for “true” odds of -131.
Pick: Phillies Money Line (-122) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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