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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back as we wind down the road to the World Series. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB postseason picks again this year. We stumbled into the postseason, losing some bets in the last week of the season, but we're back watching meaningful baseball now. I made my money in these games last year, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. I hope to roll that success into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, October 23, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 74-56-5 (+0.85 units)
2023 Postseason: 1-3 (-2.06 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -184
ARI: Merrill Kelly | PHI: Aaron Nola
I’ll start off out in Philly as the Phillies will look to clinch their second straight National League Pennant.
It’ll be Merrill Kelly (1-1, 3.00 ERA, PS) taking the ball for the Diamondbacks. Kelly started Game 2 of this series in Philly, and after an early home run from Trea Turner was able to settle in and take care of business allowing just three runs across 5.2 innings. It’s a very tall task for him to make another strong start in Citizens Bank Park, with the momentum swinging back into the Phillies’ favor after taking Game 5. My model projects Kelly to a 4.81 SIERA, while the Phillies project to a .355 wOBA in this one.
It’ll be Aaron Nola (3-0, 0.96 ERA, PS) taking the ball for the Phillies. Nola pitched in that Game 2 against Kelly last Tuesday and continued his masterclass of postseason pitching, tossing six shutout innings while allowing three hits and not allowing any free passes. Philly has won each of his three starts this postseason, and he will look to make it a fourth as he projects to a 3.73 SIERA against a Diamondbacks lineup that projects to a .311 wOBA.
The Phillies have arguably the best home field advantage in all of sports right now at Citizens Bank Park, and, while the Diamondbacks have shown signs of life while they were out in Arizona, I’ll back the Phillies here to take care of business and make their way back to the Fall Classic.
Pick: Phillies Money Line (-184), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.54 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Astros
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU -125
TEX: Max Scherzer | HOU: Cristian Javier
I’ll of course head down to Houston for the second play of the night. Jeff Passan had tweeted that this series deserves a Game 7, and here we are.
It’ll be Max Scherzer (0-1, 11.25 ERA, PS) taking the ball for the Rangers tonight. Scherzer got roughed up back in Game 3 of this series, allowing five earned run across four innings. Granted, this was his first start in over a month. Tonight, he projects to a 4.13 SIERA against a Houston offense that projects to a .364 wOBA.
It’ll be Cristian Javier (2-0, 1.69 ERA, PS) on the mound tonight for Houston. Despite Javier’s mediocre regular season (10-5, 4.56 ERA), he’s proven time and again he’s a big time pitcher come October. He also projects to a 4.13 SIERA against a Rangers offense that projects to a .347 wOBA. Since that combined no-hitter in the aforementioned Citizens Bank Park in the World Series, it’s incredibly hard to fade the Astros in the playoffs when Javier is on the mound.
This series has been electric, and a really interesting series it’s been as the home team hasn’t won a single game all series. I want to back the Astros here, but there has been a lot of volatility in the late innings, especially now with Bryan Abreu’s suspension, I’ll simply back the Astros in the first five innings in this one.
Pick: Astros F5 Moneyline (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.8 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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