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Today, we are back in the American League as we have game three of the Championship Series. The Rangers lead the series 2-0, as the first two games of this series were decided by two runs or less. These two teams know each other very well, playing in the AL West, and I cannot wait for game three of the Battle of Texas. Since it is a small one-game slate, we have combined betting articles. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick and Player Prop on tonight's short slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 18, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX (-130)
HOU: Cristian Javier | TEX: Max Scherzer
We are in Arlington for game three of the ALCS as “Mad Max” will make his playoff debut for the Rangers after missing the later part of the season with a shoulder strain. This can be significant wild care here for the Rangers as Max Scherzer when on, is one of the best in the game. I don’t expect to see this version of Max here tonight. He should be limited, and coming into this atmosphere against the Astros is a tall task for anyone after no rehab games or recent form.
His opponent, Cristian Javier, has been a monster in his postseason career. In his last three postseason starts, Javier is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 2 Hs, and 23 Ks in 16.1 IP. You cannot be any better than that over a three-game stretch. Some are made for the moment, and Javier, although a small sample size, has proven to be “him,” as our youth says.
The Rangers enter today's game undefeated in the postseason and have been outstanding on the offensive side of the ball. So far in the postseason, they own a 118 wRC+ and a .799 OPS. The Astros are not far behind with a 100 wRC+ and a .733 OPS this postseason. The advantage for the Astros here is on the mound with Javier.
The Astros have been a much different team on the road this season, especially in this park. The Astros were 39-42 at home this season and 51-30 on the road. They have won 13 of their last 16 games away from Houston. The last time they were in this park, they dominated the Rangers, out scoring them 39-10 in a three-game sweep. It's weird, but playing on the road facing Max Scherzer is the perfect get-right spot for this Astros team.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 walks (+105) DraftKings SportsBook
If you read yesterday's article, this will sound very familiar. We cashed this prop in the first inning with Bryce Harper, so why not play the same bet with the American League's hottest hitter? Player prop bets in the playoffs are very tough, with limited games. It’s hard to find value. Alvarez has been scorching hot these playoffs, and it continued Monday with a two-home run game. It will be on his back if the Astros come back in this series. You don’t think the Rangers know that?
We saw last night that the Diamondbacks will pitch very carefully to Harper. I can see the same thing happening with Alvarez here tonight—the old nonintentional, intentional walk. We will even see him get intentionally walked at some point in this series. From reading the section above, I believe the Astros win this game and play ahead. I want to attack his over in walks this game for those reasons. Hopefully, we get another first-inning cash here for Alvarez.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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