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Today, we are only back in the National League as we have game two of the Championship Series. The Phillies won game one 5-3 yesterday after an early offensive explosion, including two solo home runs in the first inning off Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. Since it is a small one-game slate, we have combined betting articles. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick and Player Prop on tonight's short slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 17, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Phillies
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-154)
ARZ: Merrill Kelly | PHI: Aaron Nola
We are witnessing two of the hottest teams on the planet run through these playoffs. The Phillies and the Rangers are on a collision course in what will be a phenomenal World Series. It’s hard to bet against either of these teams, especially this Phillies team, when they are at the Bank. The Phillies are 5-0 this postseason at home with a run differential of +21.
This offense has been unstoppable. They have a 140 wRC+, a .381 wOBA, and a .550 SLG in the postseason. For comparison, the Diamondbacks have a 115 wRC+, a .342 wOBA, and a .485 SLG. By the numbers, they have been the second-best offense this postseason. It’s truly astonishing how good the Phillies have been. They have four players above a 1.000 OPS, including Bryce Harper with a 1.521 OPS, Trea Turner with a 1.426 OPS, Nick Castellanos with a 1.414 OPS, and Brandon Marsh with a 1.009 OPS. Corbin Carroll is the only Diamondback above 1.000 this postseason with a 1.233 OPS.
Both pitchers have been excellent this postseason. Nola will be making his third start tonight and is 2-0 with a 3.08 SIERA, 0.87 WHIP, 25.5% K% and a 13.9% SwStr. Kelly will start his second postseason game, as he didn’t appear in the Wild Card series. He is 1-0 with a 4.15 SIERA, 0.79 WHIP, 20.8% K%, and a 7.9% SwStr%. I believe there will be more offense tonight as I lean the over, but the Phillies offense will be too much here for the Diamondbacks. I predict the Phillies to go up 2-0 heading to Arizona.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-154) FanDuel Sportsbook
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 walks (-125 DraftKings SportsBook)
Player prop bets in the playoffs are very tough with limited games. It’s hard to find value. I will go a different route today with our prop bet and play some game theory instead of by the numbers. Harper has been scorching hot these playoffs, and it continued yesterday with a home run and an RBI single.
We saw last night with first base open when the game was tight; the Diamondbacks will pitch around Harper and walk him. We will even see him get intentionally walked at some point in this series. From reading the section above, I believe the Phillies win this game and play ahead. For those reasons, I want to attack his over in walks this game.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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