Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/11/23)

One team, the Texas Rangers, has already punched their ticket into the Championship Series. Today, we have the opportunity for two more teams to clinch their spot, with the Diamondbacks and the Astros one win away from advancing. Since it is a small three-game slate, we have combined betting articles. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick, Pitcher Prop, and Hitter Prop on today’s short slate.

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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 11, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Twins

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN (-125)

HOU: Jose Urquidy | MIN: Joe Ryan

I have been waiting this entire series, hoping we could get this matchup between Joe Ryan and the Astros. Ryan has been downright awful to right-handed hitters this season, and as you know, the Astros lineup is full of them. There is a chance the only lefties Ryan will see tonight are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who have destroyed right-hand pitching their entire career.

Ryan, against righties this season, owns a .346 wOBA, .530 SLG, and a 36.6% hard hit. Between Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu, and Yainer Diaz, they are deep and talented from this side of the plate. As mentioned above, add in Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, who can hit anyone, and I find it hard to believe the Astros don't hit the over in their team total today.

Pick: Houston Astros OVER 1.5 runs first five innings (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook

MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Aaron Nola OVER 14.5 outs (-170 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We will go with a safer low-odds bet here since we went with a +205 bet yesterday. Nola has a 12-9 record with a 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 25.5% K% on the season. The Braves have been tremendous on the offensive side of the ball this season, but Nola will be at home. The crowd has significantly impacted the Phillies in the last two postseasons. Nola has gotten to 15 outs in 11 of his last 15 starts, including his previous three. The Phillies bullpen is weak, so riding Nola is the best chance of winning this game, resulting in his over 14.5 outs.

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+150 DraftKings SportsBook)

I mentioned exploiting the matchup between the Astros and Joe Ryan by betting on their over-in team total, but we will double down here. Altuve is my favorite right-handed bat in this lineup today, especially in the playoffs. Over the last 30 days, Altuve has a 163 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and a .580 SLG against the split. In the previous 30 days, Ryan has been even worse against the split. He has a .476 wOBA and a .367 ISO. Altuve may lead this game off with a home run.

Good luck, Rotoballers!

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