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We are a week into the playoffs, and it has been quite a surprise. Underdogs have dominated to this point, and there is a chance we will see four wild card teams advance to the championship series. Today, we are back in the American League as we have a win-or-go-home game for the Orioles and a huge swing game in the Twins and Astros series. Since it is a small two-game slate, we have combined betting articles. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick, Pitcher Prop, and Hitter Prop on tonight's short slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 10, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN (-135)
HOU: Cristian Javier | MIN: Sonny Gray
What a big-time game we have on our hands this afternoon in the Twin City. The series is nodded at one a piece, and the Twins are sending arguably their best arm to the mound at home. Dusty Baker also announced today that he likely will not send Justin Verlander to the bump tomorrow in game four on short rest. If the Twins lose this game, they will have to beat Verlander in game five in Houston and win tomorrow at home to advance. This is a must-win for the Twins, and I think they know that.
Sonny Gray has been phenomenal this season. He is 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 24.3% K%, and 11.4% SwStr%. He does have a 3.95 SIERA, which means he has gotten a bit lucky this season. Take that with a grain of salt in a one-game sample, but numbers do not lie. Cristian Javier is 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 23.1% K%, and 11.4% SwStr%. He has gotten hurt constantly by the long ball this year, allowing 25 home runs this season. This Twins team is one of the best at hitting home runs.
It's hard to imagine the Astros sneaking this game away from the Twins. I still believe Houston wins this series, but with offense in game four and Verlander at home in game five will be their path. My money will be on the Twins today.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-135) DraftKings Sportsbook
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Cristian Javier first strikeout thrown (+205 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We will get a little different here today with our pitcher prop. DraftKings has some props up for the first strikeout thrown in each game today, and I love taking a shot on Cristian Javier at +205 odds. I also max bet this with my 25% boost, making this a +256 bet. Sonny Gray will take the mound first this afternoon, and Javier will pitch in the bottom half.
Gray will presumably face three to four hitters in the first for the Astors. Those hitters are Jose Altuve, 17.8% K%, Alex Bregman, 13.6% K%, Yordan Alvarez, 17.8% K%, and Kyle Tucker, 15.2% K%. Gray, on the season, has a 24.3% K% and an 11.4% SwStr%. He could strike someone out here, but I expect the Astros to have a sense of urgency tonight and put up some quality at-bats. If Gray can get through the first without a strikeout, I love the chances of Javier getting a strikeout in the bottom half of the inning.
Javier will face two bats to start the game: Edouard Julien 31.2% K%, and Jorge Polanco 28.2% K%, who strike out a lot. Let's hope and pray Gray can get through the first without a strikeout with a clean inning or not because Javier will get us one if he does.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Adley Rutschman OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings SportsBook)
We get to my final bet of the day. Nathan Eovaldi has had a velocity dip over his last five starts, and in my speculation, I believe he is pitching hurt. He had a great outing against the Rays in the wild-card round, but I am still not buying in. He has been pounded the previous 30 days to a .361 wOBA, .191 ISO, and a 70.3% hard hit. Adley Rutschman, over the last 30 days, has a 161 wRC+, a .401 wOBA, and a .519 SLG against right-hand pitching. He will also own the platoon split over the bullpen late in the game. I love his chances of getting over in total bases tonight.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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