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Happy Saturday, and happy October RotoBallers! We're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, October 1, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 78-79-2, -19.38 units
- Sides: 36-37-1, -13.29 units
- Totals: 41-42-1, -7.67 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Yankees
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYY -220
BAL: Austin Voth | NYY: Nestor Cortes
We bounced back yesterday, finishing 2-0 hitting our two "layup" first-inning under plays. We'll look to keep the momentum rolling through the weekend with two more first-inning unders, starting off in the Bronx this afternoon.
The Orioles will be sending another article favorite of mine to the mound today, right-hander Austin Voth (5-3, 4.19 ERA). I don't frequently mention guys, especially for first-inning unders, for no reason. Voth has been nothing short of excellent in the first inning this season, allowing a run in just two of 16 starts overall. He's also a perfect 6-0 to the first inning under on the road. He hasn't made a start against the Yankees this season but did toss two scoreless innings against them last season with the Nationals.
The Yankees will be sending southpaw Nestor Cortes (11-4, 2.56 ERA) to the mound. While it seemed like Cortes has had an up-and-down year, his 2.56 ERA proves that he's been remarkably solid throughout this pennant push the Yankees are making. While "Nasty Nestor" has allowed a first-inning run in six of 27 starts overall, he's been an excellent 12-2 to first-inning unders at Yankee Stadium. It'll be his third start against the O's this season, and he's certainly had their number, tossing 11 innings without allowing an earned run.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -128, which I consider excellent value given the fact that the game total sits at just 7. The looming threat of Aaron Judge hitting his AL-record-breaking 62nd home run is always there, but my model gives the under a 63.96% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -177. I have no problem taking the hit (no pun intended) should Judge hit number 62, but we'll hope he saves it for a later at-bat.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Cardinals
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: STL -255
PIT: Luis Ortiz | STL: Jordan Montgomery
I'll head out to St. Louis for the second play of the day. I'm consistently recommending these first-inning unders for teams like the Orioles and Pirates due to their lack of ability to score in the first, as well as their starting pitchers holding their own and keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the opening frame.
Pittsburgh starter Luis Ortiz (0-1, 1.17 ERA) will be making just his fourth start of the season. Along with his excellent ERA, Ortiz has been perfect in the first inning, holding opponents off the scoreboard in each of his previous three starts, two of which came on the road. He hasn't faced the Cardinals lineup yet but did hold the Yankees scoreless in the first back on September 20. The Cardinals have clinched their divisional championship, so I can't imagine they're too worried about getting to him early today.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will be sending southpaw Jordan Montgomery (8-6, 3.50 ERA) to the mound. Man, what an awful trade this was for the Yankees, as Montgomery has been excellent since arriving in St. Louis. He's been great in the first inning all season, too, allowing a run in just three of 19 starts at home between New York and St. Louis, and in just seven of 32 starts overall. I imagine that this will likely be his final start until the playoffs, and he'll want to get off on the right foot and keep the momentum up before a Wild Card start against either the Phillies or Brewers.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under a little bit more juiced than the one we're looking at in New York, but it's still just -140. Once again, you would expect these lines to be higher with the game total sitting at just 7, but we'll take the value where we can get it. My model gives the first inning under a whopping 67.05% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -204.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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