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We had another 1-1 outing last week. The Chargers flopped big time and were destroyed by the Houston Texans, 32-12. However, we correctly predicted the Los Angeles Rams' upset over the Minnesota Vikings. Los Angeles would cruise to a 27-9 victory, and we got an easy cover. Unfortunately, we lost .18 units in the week. This marked our first losing week in well over a month.
Not to worry, though, the Divisional Round brings another opportunity to make money. We are going with two road teams this week. Here’s hoping they both take care of business and get us back to our winning ways.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football and NFL needs. Here are our best bets for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
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Buffalo Bills (+1.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game is a rematch from Week 4 of the regular season. Baltimore won that game, going away with a final score of 35-10.
DERRICK FREAKIN' HENRY!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/xhYv0apEQu
— NFL (@NFL) September 30, 2024
Buffalo originally opened as 1.5-point favorites, but that was quickly bet down in favor of the Ravens. This line has completely flipped and Baltimore is now favored by 1.5 points. Such a move was warranted as the Ravens rank higher than Buffalo in total team, offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
I bet this game on Sunday night when the Ravens were +1.5 underdogs. I even released that play in the RotoBaller Discord and premium members got a full three points worth of value if they got their wagers in early. That is good motivation to grab a premium membership. There are lots of great DFS and sports betting nuggets posted daily in the RotoBaller Discord.
I would not bet the Ravens at the current number as I believe the value is gone and the line is now efficient. However, I do like Baltimore to win this game. It defeated Buffalo by 25 points earlier this year, and I don’t believe the Bills are 25 points better now than they were then.
Baltimore looks like a team on a mission to avenge last year’s loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. I expect Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and crew to get the job done.
Pick: Ravens Moneyline (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1 Unit
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
We get another rematch from the regular season here. The Eagles defeated the Rams 37-20 in Los Angeles back in Week 12. Saquon Barkley led the way with 255 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
WOW SAQUON WOW pic.twitter.com/DliVWBTUVn
— NFL (@NFL) November 25, 2024
Philadelphia’s offense runs through Barkley, and its defense is arguably the best in the league. If Los Angeles expects to compete in this game, it will have to concentrate all its efforts on stopping Barkley and the ground game. That will be a tough ask as the Rams rank just 21st in defensive rush DVOA and allow over 130 rushing yards per game.
However, Los Angeles might choose to stack the box and force Jalen Hurts to beat it with his arm. The Eagles passing offense did not look great last week against a banged-up Green Bay secondary and could have trouble again this week. Hurts also struggled early in the year when the team threw the ball more often.
The Rams' best course of action might be to sell out to stop Barkley and make Philadelphia beat them through the air. That’s a risky proposition with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, but it might give Los Angeles the best chance to win.
Los Angeles was banged up back in Week 12, but it is now healthy and is a much better team than it was in the first showdown with the Eagles. I make this line closer to 4.5 and expect Los Angeles to keep this game close. If it can contain Barkley, it will be live for an upset.
Pick: Rams +6.5 (-115) and Rams Moneyline (+225) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit on Rams +6.5
Risk .2 Units to Win .45 Units on Rams Moneyline
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